Janice R. Andrews
The race for president in 2024 in the United States between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is turning out to be one of the strangest and most heated in recent memory. Both candidates have mostly avoided talking in depth about foreign policy, especially when it comes to U.S.-China ties, Indo-Pacific strategies, and bigger problems that affect the whole world. Instead, the race has been dominated by worries at home, even though relations with China are rising, the war in Ukraine is still going on, and problems in the Middle East are getting worse.
Putting domestic issues ahead of foreign policy
Analysts all agree that this election cycle is focussing too much on problems at home and not enough on important issues in foreign policy. “They probably don’t care about foreign policy,” said Bonnie Glaser, who is in charge of running the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Voters don’t seem to care as much about how the next president will handle America’s role in the world because they are more worried about the economy, inflation, and health care.
But both Harris and Trump have a lot at stake in how U.S. foreign policy is made, especially when it comes to China, whose trade and military stance have become a major issue in recent years. Trump has talked a lot about trade wars and taxes with China, but Harris has been more calm. She is following the Biden administration’s plan to balance competition and cooperation.
Relations with China: More tariffs and limits on exports are coming
Even though neither candidate has said much about foreign policy, one thing is clear: ties between the U.S. and China are not likely to get better, no matter who wins the election. Analysts think that neither Harris nor Trump will be able to stop taxes and other limits on exports to China.
Trump has promised to put taxes on all imports of up to 20% and on Chinese goods of up to 60%. He is known for taking a tough stand against Beijing while he was president from 2017 to 2021. Part of his “America First” strategy is to push for full “decoupling” from China. This would make the U.S. less dependent on Chinese exports and restore U.S. economic power. An expert at the Eurasia Group named Dominic Chiu said, “Things will fray either way, but it will be worse under Trump.”
Harris, on the other hand, is likely to keep up Biden’s more gradual tightening of export controls, especially on electric cars and key technologies. It’s possible that she would focus on keeping partnerships with countries around the world strong while carefully handling the competition from China. Casey Burgat, an assistant professor at George Washington University, said, “Harris’s strategy calls for a more balanced, globally coordinated effort.” She hasn’t said what her clear foreign policy stance is, though, so she doesn’t have to take views that could be seen as controversial.
Alliances between the United States and the future of multilateralism
Harris and Trump have different ideas about how the U.S. should deal with its friends and enemies on the world stage. It is believed that Harris will continue to back Biden’s efforts to stop China’s military and economic growth in the Indo-Pacific area. These include NATO and the Quad, which is a strategic alliance between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia. “The coalitions will hold with Harris,” a policy expert who used to work for the Trump administration said. Trump, on the other hand, doesn’t believe in multilateralism and says that partners aren’t “paying their share” for defence. This makes it seem like U.S. alliances might have trouble working together under his guidance.
Trump’s dislike of multinational groups like NATO could make the U.S. less influential in Europe and other places. He has said in the past that he doesn’t think it’s necessary to keep American soldiers overseas and would rather change the U.S. defence policy to focus more on protecting itself. One thing that might be different is Trump’s backing for the Quad, which he has done before and may continue to do as a key part of U.S. Indo-Pacific policy.
What does China have at stake?
China has a stated policy of “non-interference” in U.S. elections, so they are keeping a close eye on the results. Some experts think that Beijing might want Trump to win because they think that his unpredictable policies and desire to keep the United States separate from other countries will hurt U.S. power around the world and hurt allies. Others say that Harris would bring more security and consistency, which would make it easier for China to guess what the U.S. will do.
Jeremy Chan, a senior expert at Eurasia, said, “China is very worried about the election.” “But I’ve also picked up relative optimism on Harris as someone who may be more malleable.” People think that Harris is less likely to make policies that cause fights because she is more polite. This could lower tensions but also make strategic competition stronger around sensitive areas like Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Trump vs. Harris: A Huge Difference in Foreign Policy
Both candidates haven’t said much about their foreign policy plans, but their pasts give us hints about how they might run the country. Trump has always been transactional, and his foreign policy is based on economic issues like trade deficits and taxes. During his first term in office, he took a tough stand on China, pushing for higher taxes, a trade war, and cutting Beijing off from global trade networks.
Harris, on the other hand, is likely to keep Biden’s more polite approach, focussing on strategic competition and partnerships with China instead of direct conflict. As a former prosecutor and senator from California, she has a strong preference for legal frameworks and international cooperation. However, it is still unclear what her position is on important topics like Taiwan.
As the strangest U.S. presidential race in recent memory plays out, internal issues have become more important than foreign policy. No matter who wins the election, ties between the U.S. and China are likely to stay tense, with taxes and export limits continuing to rise. Trump’s combative “America First” strategy is very different from Harris’s controlled, alliance-focused approach. This means that, depending on the result of the election, U.S. foreign policy could change in big ways.
