Janice R. Andrews
Even though it’s record-high in the Gulf of Mexico right now, the 2024 storm season has slowed down, which has meteorologists confused. There are a lot of signs that this could be a busy time, like the move toward La Niña and extremely warm Atlantic waters, but no tropical cyclones are expected to happen soon. Friday, the National Hurricane Center stated that there will be no major tropical activity for at least a week. This is a surprise during a season that is usually very busy.
Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in storm predictions for the Atlantic basin, was shocked by what was going on. “Nothing is going to happen.” Klotzbach said, “It’s very quiet, which is strange because the Atlantic is very hot and there is a trend toward La Niña.” “There’s a lot of head-scratching right now.”
La Niña is a natural weather trend that is expected to get stronger this fall. When it does, hurricanes tend to happen more often. The University of Miami also says that the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are the highest they’ve been since 2013. This means that storms could happen. The Climate Reanalyzer at the University of Maine also showed that sea temperatures in the North Atlantic are about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above average. This makes it even more likely that a storm will form.
Scientists know that warm seas can make storms stronger by adding heat and moisture to the air. Even with these good conditions, the storm season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30, has suddenly slowed down after a strong start.
In June, Hurricane Beryl was the first Category 4 storm of the year. In early August, Hurricane Debby hit parts of the Southeast U.S. with heavy rain, making the season off to a great start. But there hasn’t been much going on since then.
Steve Bowen, Chief Science Officer for Gallagher Re, said that weather patterns off the coast of West Africa, such as a stronger rainfall, may have kept storms from forming in the Atlantic area. Bowen warns, though, that this quiet time might not last. “It would not be a surprise if we end up seeing a backloaded season where September, October, and even November are quite active,” he added.
Experts say that the season has been busy so far, even though things are slow right now. Bowen said, “We’ve already had two U.S. hurricane landfalls.” “Statistically, we’re actually running quite ahead of where we typically would be in an average season.” As September 10 comes, the busiest day of hurricane season, things may soon get busier with storms.
