Janice R. Andrews
Tensions between Egypt and Israel have escalated in recent days, with Israel accusing Egypt of increasing its military presence near their shared border. Egypt, however, claims the troop movements are aimed at combating extremists in the Sinai region. Amidst a fragile ceasefire in Gaza and controversial proposals for Palestinian resettlement, the situation has sparked a war of words between the two nations. But what’s really behind Egypt’s military buildup, and is there a risk of conflict?
The Context: A Fragile Ceasefire and Controversial Proposals
The current tensions come against the backdrop of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, which began after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, killing around 1,200 people. Israel’s retaliatory military campaign in Gaza has resulted in over 48,000 deaths, according to reports. A fragile ceasefire is now in place, and discussions about Gaza’s reconstruction are underway.
However, a controversial suggestion by former U.S. President Donald Trump has added fuel to the fire. Trump proposed relocating Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and Jordan while constructing a “Gaza Riviera.” Both Egypt and Jordan have vehemently opposed this idea, calling it an existential threat and a form of ethnic cleansing. This proposal has heightened regional tensions, with Egypt increasing its military presence near the Israeli border, ostensibly to prevent any forced displacement of Palestinians.
Social Media and Media Reports: A Military Buildup?
Videos circulating on social media and reports from Arabic and Israeli media outlets claim to show a significant Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula, close to the borders with Israel and Gaza. These reports suggest that Egypt is preparing for a potential confrontation with Israel to prevent the forced relocation of Palestinians into Sinai.
One widely shared video from early February shows around a dozen Egyptian tanks near the border. However, experts caution that such footage may not tell the full story. Older press images reveal that Egyptian tanks have been stationed in similar areas for years, as part of ongoing efforts to combat extremist groups in Sinai.
Egypt’s Stance: Combating Extremism, Not Preparing for War
Egypt has consistently denied that its military movements are directed at Israel. Instead, Cairo insists that its troops are focused on combating extremist groups in Sinai, such as ISIS-affiliated militants, who have been active in the region for years. According to the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, Egypt’s military presence in Sinai is limited, and any significant troop movements require prior coordination with Israel and the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO), an international peacekeeping body established under the treaty.
Hossam el-Hamalawy, an Egyptian researcher and activist, emphasized that Egypt cannot deploy troops or tanks in Sinai without Israeli approval. “The Egyptian army cannot send a single tank, even a single officer, into Sinai without prior Israeli permission,” he said. The MFO, which oversees the treaty’s implementation, declined to comment on the recent troop movements, stating that its findings are shared only with Egypt and Israel.
Israel’s Concerns: A Growing Military Presence
Despite Egypt’s assurances, Israel has expressed concern over the increased military activity near its border. Some Israeli officials view the buildup as a potential threat, particularly in light of Egypt’s opposition to the “Gaza Riviera” proposal. Ahmed Aboudouh, a foreign affairs expert at Chatham House, noted that while Egypt’s deployments are not offensive, their permanent nature has unsettled Israeli leaders.
Israel’s concerns are further fueled by Egypt’s growing military capabilities. In recent years, Egypt has modernized its armed forces, acquiring advanced weaponry and expanding its military infrastructure in Sinai. Under the 1979 treaty, Egypt’s military presence in Sinai is restricted, but exceptions have been made to address security challenges. For instance, in 2018, Egypt doubled its forces in Sinai to 42,000 troops to combat extremism, with Israel’s approval.
The Philadelphi Corridor: A Flashpoint for Tensions
Another point of contention is the Philadelphi Corridor, a 14-kilometer strip of land along the Gaza-Egypt border. Previously managed by Egypt under a 2005 agreement with Israel, the corridor includes the Rafah crossing, Gaza’s only entry and exit point to Egypt. However, during its military campaign in Gaza last year, Israel took control of the corridor, despite Egyptian objections.
Egypt has long opposed a heavy Israeli military presence on its borders, and the recent troop movements may be a response to Israel’s actions in the Philadelphi Corridor. Aboudouh suggested that Egypt’s deployments could be aimed at balancing Israel’s military presence in the area.
Diplomacy Over Conflict
Despite the heated rhetoric, experts believe that neither Egypt nor Israel is seeking a military confrontation. Both nations have a long history of diplomatic engagement and security cooperation, particularly in combating extremism in Sinai. The recent tensions are more likely a reflection of domestic and regional politics.
For Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, the military buildup reinforces his image as a strong leader defending Egypt’s sovereignty and the rights of Palestinians. In Israel, the reports serve as a tool to pressure Egypt over the “Gaza Riviera” proposal and to highlight concerns about Egypt’s military modernization.
Ahmed Salem, director of the Sinai Foundation for Human Rights, emphasized that diplomatic channels remain the preferred means of resolving disputes. “When it comes to tensions between two countries, there are a lot of steps, diplomatic steps, that can be taken before the army is deployed,” he said.
The Road Ahead: Regional Cooperation
The focus now is on building a unified Arab front to address the ongoing crisis in Gaza. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Jordan are scheduled to meet in Riyadh to discuss the situation. Additionally, a summit on February 27 aims to foster regional cooperation and de-escalate tensions.
While the relationship between Egypt and Israel is complex, both nations have a vested interest in maintaining stability. As el-Hamalawy noted, “Right now, it’s more like business as usual between Egypt and Israel.” Recent reports of Egypt seeking to increase gas imports from Israel by 58% further underscore the interdependence between the two countries.
Conclusion
Egypt’s military buildup near the Israeli border has sparked fears of a potential conflict, but the reality is more nuanced. While Egypt’s troop movements are primarily aimed at combating extremism in Sinai, they also reflect Cairo’s opposition to controversial proposals for Palestinian resettlement. Israel’s concerns about Egypt’s growing military presence highlight the delicate balance of power in the region.
Ultimately, diplomacy remains the most viable path forward. Both Egypt and Israel have too much at stake to risk a military confrontation. As regional leaders work to address the crisis in Gaza, the focus will be on fostering cooperation and ensuring long-term stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
