Early Voting in 2024: A Changing Electoral Landscape

One week before Election Day, early voting data reveals notable shifts from 2020’s patterns. Over 48 million Americans have already voted across 47 states and DC, though numbers remain below 2020’s pandemic-driven surge, representing about 30% of that year’s total early votes.

Key Demographic Changes

Age Distribution

• Voters 65+ now comprise 44% of early ballots, up 9% from 2020
• Young voters (30-39) decreased to 9% from 12%
• Overall trend shows significantly older electorate

Racial Composition

• White voters: increased to 75% (from 73%)
• Black voter turnout: remained stable
• Latino and Asian turnout: slight decrease

Party Affiliation

• Republicans: 35% of early votes (up from 29%)
• Democrats: 39% of early votes (down from 45%)
• Notable Republican surge in early voting participation

State-Specific Trends

Georgia

• Exceeded 2020’s in-person early voting levels
• 2.9 million early votes cast
• Mail-in voting dropped sharply (341,000 vs 1.3 million in 2020)
• White voters increased to 64% (from 62%)
• Black voters decreased to 29% (from 31%)

North Carolina

• Overall early voting down 10% from 2020
• In-person voting up by 312,000 voters
• Republicans: 34% (up 4 points)
• Democrats: 33% (down 5 points)

Other Battleground States

• Michigan: Demographics stable (84% white voters, 11% black voters)
• Wisconsin: Consistent with 2020 (90% white voters, 4% black voters)
• Arizona: Republicans up to 42% (6-point increase)

Policy Impact

• Stricter mail-in voting requirements in several states
• Georgia: New voter ID requirements, fewer drop boxes
• North Carolina: Now requires two witness signatures for mail ballots

Voting Method Preferences

• Republicans show strong preference for in-person voting
• Democrats lead in mail-in ballot usage
• Example from Nevada:
• Mail voters: 41% Democrat, 31% Republican
• In-person voters: 49% Republican, 27% Democrat

Analysis

The 2024 early voting landscape shows three major shifts:

1. A significant aging of the electorate
2. Increased Republican participation in early voting
3. A move away from mail-in voting toward in-person early voting

While these trends don’t predict final election outcomes, they suggest evolving voter behavior and highlight the impact of recent voting policy changes. The surge in older, more conservative early voters could particularly influence results in competitive states where margins are traditionally narrow.