Janice R. Andrews
Scientists studying Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier, also called the “Doomsday Glacier,” have made a shocking discovery: it is melting faster than expected. Their study shows that the glacier, which has enough ice to raise the sea level by more than two feet, may be on a road to collapse that can’t be stopped. This could be very bad for coastal areas around the world.
The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) has been studying Thwaites since 2018 using ice-breaking ships, satellite data, and underwater robots to learn more about how it moves and when it will fall. Their new research, which was released Thursday in several studies, paints a stark picture of how the glacier is melting and how it is melting.
Quick Retreat and Rising Seas
Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist from the British Antarctic Survey and a part of the ITGC team, says that the Thwaites Glacier, which is about the size of Florida, has been melting quickly, especially in the last 30 years. He said, “Our research shows that it is going to retreat further and faster.” Scientists now think that Thwaites and the rest of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could melt within 200 years if things keep going the way they are. This could cause the sea level to rise by about 10 feet.
Because of where it is located, Thwaites is especially at risk. Since the glacier is on ground that slopes down, more of the ice that melts is exposed to the warmer water of the ocean. Because of this, Thwaites is a very important “cork” for keeping the bigger West Antarctic Ice Sheet in place. If Thwaites falls, the ice sheet could follow. This would raise sea levels by a lot and put at risk places like Miami, New York, London, and many coastal areas around the world.
Figuring out the complicated processes that cause melting
Scientists have known for a long time that Thwaites is in danger, but they didn’t fully understand how it melts. That changed when the ITGC team sent Icefin, an underwater robot in the shape of a torpedo, to look into the glacier’s grounding line. This is the point where ice starts to rise from the bottom and float. This part of Thwaites’ construction is a major weak spot.
When Icefin sent back pictures of the glacier’s melt, they showed patterns that no one expected. Warm water from the ocean was able to get through cracks and deep “staircase” shapes in the ice, which made the melting at the glacier’s base faster. “It made us feel sad when we saw this for the first time,” said Kiya Riverman, a glaciologist at the University of Portland. “For glaciologists, this was like the landing on the moon for the rest of the world.”
Another group of experts used satellite and GPS data to look into how the tides affect Thwaites. They found that the water can push almost six miles below the glacier, which speeds up the melting process. The changing relationship between the waves and the warm water has helped Thwaites flee much faster than anyone thought possible.
Lessons from the past and natural climate triggers
Researchers looked into both how the ice is moving now and how it has changed in the past. A group led by Julia Wellner from the University of Houston looked at sea sediment cores to figure out what happened to the glacier in the past. They found that Thwaites started to melt quickly in the 1940s. During this time, there was a strong El Niño event, which is a natural weather trend that is known to cause heat.
These new ideas help us better understand how changes in the natural climate may have sped up Thwaites’ departure. But climate change caused by humans is speeding up the rate of ice loss, making the situation even worse.
An ounce of hope in the midst of bad news
A lot of the news is scary, but the study gives us some reason to be hopeful. Scientists have long been worried that if Thwaites’ ice shelves broke off, they would leave behind huge ice walls that could easily become unstable and fall into the ocean, starting a chain reaction of more breaks. But computer models show that this terrible cliff instability is not as likely as was first thought.
That being said, Thwaites is still in danger. Even if the worst-case situation of cliffs falling is avoided, the glacier is still melting quickly, and when it does, it could change the shape of coasts all over the world. An ice scientist at the University of California, Irvine, and ITGC member named Eric Rignot said, “Progress has been made, but we still have a lot of doubts about the future.” It still worries me a lot that this part of Antarctica is already falling apart.
Need for More Research Right Away
Even though the ITGC is finished with this part of its research, more needs to be done right away. The team has given us a better idea of how weak Thwaites is, but there are still a lot of questions about its future. Finding out if the glacier’s melting is really permanent is important for getting ready for the possibility of rising sea levels around the world, which would affect millions of people who live near the coast.
It’s hard to forget how bad climate change is because of Thwaites’ story. This huge glacier is melting faster and faster, which could cause widespread floods, extreme weather events, and economic problems for coastal towns. Thwaites’ fall could happen over hundreds of years, so the whole world needs to move right away to lessen the worst effects of this disaster.
