Janice R. Andrews
The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) is keeping a close eye on a tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean that has a 60% probability of developing into a tropical depression by early next week as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season heats up. In the meantime, Tropical Storm Debby, which was responsible for significant devastation and record-breaking rainfall from Florida to the Carolinas, has diminished and is currently categorised as a post-tropical storm.
Debby Loses Strength After Tropical Cyclone
As to the NHC’s 5 a.m. advisory, Debby, which first made landfall as a hurricane at Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, has changed into a post-tropical cyclone. On August 8, the system made a second landfall close to Bulls Bay, South Carolina, with sustained winds of 50 mph. Five days after making landfall in Florida, where storm caused substantial flooding and torrential rains, Debby is already fading.
The system now has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, with stronger gusts expected as it develops into an extratropical cyclone, according to the NHC’s last Debby advisory. Debby is still a hazard for flooding even if it is fading; an extra one to three inches of rain are predicted in certain areas of the coastal Carolinas. Upstate New York and Northern Virginia may receive 2 to 4 inches of rain through Friday night, with some areas possibly receiving up to 6 inches. It is also predicted that 1 to 3 inches of rain, with greater local amounts, would fall in Northern New England.
As long as there is a substantial risk of flooding due to Debby, the task of delivering updates will be assumed by the Weather Prediction Centre (WPC). Additionally, regional National Weather Service (NWS) offices will keep an eye on conditions and issue pertinent notifications.
Attraction for a New Tropical Wave in the Atlantic
Concern is focused on a fresh tropical wave that is situated hundreds of kilometres to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as Debby becomes weaker. Over the tropical Atlantic, this system is causing a wide region of erratic showers and thunderstorms. Although the NHC has given it a 60% probability of developing into a tropical depression by early next week, development is only predicted to be gradual over the next several days.
Ernesto will be the name given to this system if it becomes a named storm. Before circumstances become more favourable for development, the wave is predicted to proceed over the middle tropical Atlantic in a westerly direction. The system may get close to the Lesser and Greater Antilles by the middle of next week, which might be dangerous for these areas.
NOAA Revises Forecast for Hurricane Season in 2024
NOAA has revised their projection for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 as the hurricane season advances, indicating a higher chance of an above-normal season. 17 to 24 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 significant hurricanes are predicted per the most recent prediction. There is now a 90% possibility of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a near-normal season.
Given that four named storms, including Debby, have already been reported this season, it is already looking to be one of the busiest ever. The most activity is predicted to occur between mid-August and mid-October, with the peak of hurricane season usually falling around September 10.
Getting Ready for Hurricane Season’s High Point
Residents in hurricane-prone areas need to be on the lookout for and prepared for future storms, as more may emerge in the upcoming weeks. The NHC and local weather offices stress the need of having an emergency plan in place and staying updated through dependable sources.
It is advised for residents to often check weather updates, particularly during the busiest time of year. Local NWS offices give location-specific weather alerts, while the NHC tracks active storms in real time.
Colorado State University Forecasts Hurricane Activity Through Mid-August
Forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) have projected an 85% possibility of storm activity between August 6 and August 19, which heightens the alarm. The tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles is the main hurricane hazard area during this time of year. The most recent CSU model keeps 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes for the 2024 season on track, while it drops the number of named storms from 25 to 23.
August 20 is when CSU will provide its next forecast update. This update will cover the crucial period from August 20 to September 2, which is when the season peaks.
The scenario is still dynamic as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season goes on because of Debby’s weakening and the possibility of the formation of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. In order to keep locals safe and prepared, the NHC and other meteorological organisations continue to give essential information. It is more crucial than ever to stay knowledgeable and prepared for everything the tropics may throw at you since there is a busy season ahead.
