Janice R. Andrews
A trend of tropical cyclone formation in the Eastern and Central Pacific could send several named storms towards Hawaii. The state is keeping a close eye on the Pacific. Still, it’s too early to say what effect these methods might have on the state.
The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) is keeping an eye on two major weather systems right now: Invest EP91, which is about 1,000 miles away from Hawaii, and Hurricane Gilma, which is about 2,000 miles east of the islands.
Hurricane Gilma Could Be a Powerhouse
storm Gilma is the second storm of the 2024 East Pacific hurricane season. It is getting stronger quickly and could be a Category 3 or even a Category 4 hurricane by the weekend. Even though Gilma is strong, it is over open sea and a long way from Hawaii, so it is not as much of an instant threat to the Aloha State.
Forecasters are keeping a close eye on Gilma as it gets stronger, but based on its current path, any effects on Hawaii would likely happen in the last week of August. Still, there are a lot of different things that could happen, and a lot will rest on how the system changes over the next few days.
Invest EP91: A Threat That Is Closer
A disturbance called Invest EP91, which is about 1,000 miles from Hawaii, is slowly growing. Forecasts show that as this system moves into the Central Pacific, it might turn into a tropical storm. Hurricane Hunters will start looking into the storm on Thursday, and low-level tasks could begin as early as Friday afternoon.
Hawaii rarely gets hit directly by a tropical storm, but when they do, the waves and winds are often stronger. People still remember the flames that broke out last year because of a difference in pressure between a high-pressure ridge north of the islands and Category 4 Hurricane Dora to the south. Even though Dora went more than 500 miles south of Honolulu, it had an effect that changed weather patterns for thousands of miles, showing how strong storms from far away can be.
The NHC has asked people who live or visit Hawaii to keep a close eye on how Invest EP91 develops. “While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance,” the NHC said in a post.
Environmental Factors and Problems with Making Predictions
The size and path of these tropical storms as they get closer to Hawaii could be affected by a number of environmental factors. Tropical storms are known to weaken or go away before they hit the islands when there is dry air and cooler water close to the shore. Many times, these natural hurdles keep Hawaii safe from the full force of storms that are coming, but they can also make predictions less accurate.
There isn’t as much technology in the Pacific as there is in the Atlantic, which makes it harder to predict how storms will affect the area. Storms in the Atlantic are closely watched by planes, drones, and other high-tech tools, but in many places of the Pacific, these tools are not available. The information gathered by storm hunters and satellites is very important for prediction models. However, the lack of data in the Pacific can make these models less stable. Models can be wrong sometimes. One run might show a storm coming, but the next run might show dry air instead.
The Problem of Naming
The creation of Invest EP91 also makes me wonder about the name process. If the system is set up quickly, it will be given a name from the Eastern Pacific, like Hector or Ileana. If it grows more slowly, though, and goes across the 140-degree west longitude line into the Central Pacific, it will be controlled by the Central Pacific Hurricane Centre (CPHC), which has its own set of names. It was called Hone, and it was the first tropical storm to hit the Central Pacific this year.
Together with the Climate Prediction Centre, the CPHC thinks that this season there will be between one and four tropical storms in the Central Pacific. This prediction is a little less than the usual four to five hurricanes, storms, and tropical depressions.
Hawaii residents and tourists are reminded of how random Pacific storms can be as they watch these tropical systems grow. It’s too early to say for sure what will happen to the islands, but the situation needs to be closely watched. In the next few days, we’ll learn more about these tropical storms’ possible tracks and how strong they are as they get closer to Hawaii.
