Janice R. Andrews
Global Warming Projections Stagnate as Emissions Surge
At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, world leaders are facing a sobering reality: despite escalating climate crises, fossil fuel emissions continue to climb. According to recent updates from Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a leading global authority on climate policy, projections for future global warming have stagnated for three years, with no new national climate targets or net-zero emissions pledges introduced in 2024. This stagnation underscores a widening gap between the urgency of the climate crisis and the inadequate policy responses from governments worldwide.
Carbon Emissions Hit New Highs
The latest annual assessment from the Global Carbon Project paints a grim picture. Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas are expected to reach a record high of 37.4 billion tons in 2024. This marks a 0.8% increase compared to 2023, signaling that global carbon emissions are still far from peaking.
While renewable energy investments have surged, reaching twice the investment levels in fossil fuels, these gains are being offset by unprecedented subsidies for fossil fuel projects. From 2021 to 2022, subsidies for fossil fuel industries quadrupled, balancing out the progress made in clean energy adoption.
The urgency of the situation was highlighted by Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute: “Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals. World leaders at COP29 must implement rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions if we are to stay below a 2°C temperature rise.”
No Significant Policy Changes in 2024
The annual update from Climate Action Tracker indicates that global climate policies have not advanced in 2024, continuing a concerning trend that started three years ago. Current policies are setting the world on a path toward a catastrophic 2.7°C rise in global temperatures. This stagnation is attributed to the lack of new national climate targets and pledges for net-zero emissions.
Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, a climate think tank, emphasized the severity of the situation, stating, “There is a critical disconnect between the reality of climate change and the urgency that governments are assigning to their emission reduction policies.”
Trump’s Projected Impact on Climate Action
The potential impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Project 2025, which aims to roll back significant climate policies, has also been scrutinized by CAT. While the rollback’s direct impact on global warming is projected to be relatively minimal — increasing temperatures by about 0.04°C — the implications could be far-reaching. A reduction in climate action momentum from the U.S. could influence other nations to slow their efforts, especially if the U.S. withdraws from international agreements like the Paris Accord.
“Trump’s pro-fossil fuel agenda could throw a wrecking ball into global climate action,” warned Bill Hare. Despite this, he noted that the current momentum for clean energy, fostered by the Democratic administration, might still hold strong, preventing a complete derailment of progress.
Rising Emissions Amid Climate Catastrophes
The alarming rise in emissions comes at a time when the world is already grappling with extreme weather events linked to global heating. In 2024, devastating heatwaves, severe droughts, torrential floods, and intense wildfires have led to significant human and economic losses. The El Niño weather pattern, exacerbating forest fires and deforestation, has contributed to a rise in land-use change emissions, further compounding the problem.
According to the Global Carbon Project, overall CO2 emissions have remained relatively stable over the past decade, thanks to decreasing land-use change emissions. However, the recent surge in emissions from both fossil fuels and deforestation is reversing this trend, indicating a troubling shift towards increasing atmospheric carbon levels.
With atmospheric CO2 continuing to rise, 2024 is projected to become the hottest year on record, surpassing the unprecedented heat levels of 2023. Scientists estimate a 50% chance that the global temperature rise will consistently exceed 1.5°C within the next six years if current emission rates persist.
Signs of Hope in the Fight Against Climate Change
Despite the grim outlook, there are indicators of positive progress in the battle against climate change. Corinne Le Quéré, a Royal Society Research Professor at the University of Exeter, highlighted the growing impact of renewable energy and electric vehicles. These advancements are beginning to displace fossil fuel usage in several key sectors, demonstrating that effective climate action is possible.
“There are many signs of positive progress at the country level,” said Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research. “A peak in global fossil CO2 emissions feels imminent, but achieving this globally remains a challenge.”
Countries like the U.S., the UK, and several European nations have made notable strides in reducing fossil fuel emissions over the past decade, even as their economies continue to grow. This trend suggests that economic growth does not have to come at the expense of the environment, providing a model for other nations to follow.
The Need for Accelerated Climate Action
The findings presented at COP29 underscore an urgent call for increased climate action. While there have been some successes in reducing emissions and boosting clean energy, these efforts are not sufficient to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement. With over 40 billion tons of CO2 being emitted annually, a significant reduction in global emissions is needed to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
The scientific community, including the 120 contributors to the Global Carbon Budget report, agrees that rapid and widespread emission reductions are crucial. They warn that without a global peak in fossil fuel emissions soon, the world is on track for a dangerous temperature rise well above 2°C, with potentially irreversible impacts on ecosystems and human societies.
Conclusion: COP29’s Critical Role in Climate Action
As world leaders convene at COP29, the pressure is on to make meaningful progress in reducing global emissions. The current trend of rising fossil fuel emissions, combined with stagnant policy advancements, is pushing the planet closer to a climate tipping point.
To change course, governments must commit to ambitious climate policies that align with the Paris Agreement’s targets. This includes phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, accelerating the transition to renewable energy, and setting new national targets for net-zero emissions.
The decisions made at COP29 will have far-reaching implications for the future of our planet. It is crucial that these talks lead to tangible, immediate actions that can slow the pace of global warming and set the world on a sustainable path toward a healthier climate.
