Janice R. Andrews
China’s annual “Two Sessions” meetings—the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)—are underway in Beijing, shedding light on the country’s key policies, including its stance on Taiwan. Given the global geopolitical shifts following the Ukraine conflict, analysts are closely monitoring these sessions for clues about Beijing’s next moves.
Economic Priorities Amid Rising Global Uncertainty
Premier Li Qiang’s government work report places strong emphasis on economic stability and technological advancement, setting a growth target of around 5% for 2025. The government aims to boost domestic consumption, address real estate market challenges, and push for technological self-reliance, especially in artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing. This cautious but ambitious approach reflects China’s efforts to navigate global economic pressures.
Increased Defense Budget and Military Modernization
China announced a 7.2% increase in its defense budget, bringing it to around $245 billion, continuing its push for military modernization. The budget expansion supports the development of advanced naval fleets, stealth fighters, and aircraft carriers, reinforcing China’s defense strategy amid heightened regional tensions.
Taiwan Policy: Stronger Stance on Reunification
Taiwan remains a major focus of Beijing’s policy, with Premier Li reaffirming China’s commitment to advancing reunification while opposing external interference. Notably, the official rhetoric omitted the word “peaceful”, a shift that could indicate a firmer stance. This signals China’s growing resolve amid rising U.S. and allied support for Taiwan.
Lessons from Ukraine and Strategic Calculations
Beijing is closely observing the Ukraine conflict to assess how international powers respond to major geopolitical crises. Key considerations include sanctions effectiveness, military aid, and global alliances, which may shape China’s approach toward Taiwan. This ongoing evaluation could inform potential countermeasures or diplomatic strategies in case of a Taiwan-related escalation.
Expanding Cognitive Warfare and Misinformation
Reports suggest that China is intensifying cognitive warfare efforts against Taiwan. The United Front Work Department has formed specialized task forces to spread disinformation on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and U.S. investments. This reflects an increasing focus on influencing global and domestic perceptions regarding Taiwan.
Strengthening Cross-Strait Economic Ties
Despite tensions, China aims to foster economic exchanges between the mainland and Taiwan. Strengthening economic interdependence remains a key strategy, as deeper financial ties could serve as a stepping stone toward Beijing’s long-term reunification objectives.
Diplomatic Maneuvers and Foreign Relations
With global alliances shifting post-Ukraine, China is reassessing its foreign policy regarding Taiwan. Beijing is exploring diplomatic opportunities to strengthen ties with European nations, potentially counterbalancing U.S. influence in the region.
Conclusion
The 2025 “Two Sessions” meetings highlight China’s evolving strategy toward Taiwan. A combination of economic resilience, military expansion, and strategic diplomacy underscores Beijing’s approach amid an increasingly complex global landscape. As geopolitical tensions continue, China’s next steps on Taiwan will remain under close international scrutiny.
