Janice R. Andrews
High atop the Tibetan Plateau, the Yarlung Tsangpo River cuts through the world’s deepest canyon before descending into India as the Brahmaputra River. For millions living downstream, it has long been a vital resource. However, China’s recent approval of a US$137 billion hydropower project has heightened tensions between the two nations, threatening to destabilize an already fragile relationship.
China’s planned mega-dam, touted as the world’s largest hydropower facility, is expected to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, sufficient to power 300 million homes. While this project is an engineering marvel, it raises alarm in India over water security, environmental risks, and geopolitical challenges.
India’s Strategic Fears
The Brahmaputra River is a critical lifeline for India, supporting agriculture, drinking water, and hydropower needs. Yet, without a water-sharing agreement in place, India’s downstream position leaves it vulnerable to potential exploitation by China.
“China’s upper riparian status gives it significant control, and it is undoubtedly leveraging that advantage,” said Gunjan Singh, a China-South Asia relations expert. Beijing’s unwillingness to share hydrological data has already disrupted India’s flood management efforts, deepening suspicions about its intentions.
Security analyst Ivan Lidarev highlights India’s constrained position: “India opposes Chinese dam-building activities but has limited capacity to counter them, given China’s control as the upstream nation.” This disparity underscores concerns that Beijing could weaponize water resources during disputes or neglect Indian interests altogether.
Impact of Border Tensions
The dam’s approval comes amid a fragile period in Sino-Indian relations. In 2020, the two nations experienced a deadly clash in the Galwan Valley, reviving hostilities rooted in their 1962 border war. Despite agreements to disengage troops, progress has been sluggish. China’s dam project and the establishment of new counties in the disputed Aksai Chin region have further strained relations.
“The lack of de-escalation along the border prevents any real progress in bilateral ties,” said Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He emphasized that China’s recent moves, including the dam’s approval, indicate an assertive stance that complicates diplomatic efforts.
Environmental and Humanitarian Risks
The Himalayas’ seismic activity poses significant risks to the stability of such large-scale projects. The recent 6.8-magnitude earthquake in Tibet has heightened fears in India of catastrophic flooding or landslides if the dam is damaged.
“Earthquake risks are ever-present, and a disaster could result in a humanitarian crisis,” warned Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, an international studies expert at Nalanda University. The fragile ecosystem of the Himalayas magnifies these risks, making the potential fallout even more devastating for downstream populations.
China’s Broader Hydropower Ambitions
China’s extensive dam-building agenda on transboundary rivers has long been a source of contention with its neighbors, including Bhutan and Bangladesh. Four dams have already been completed upstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo, adding to regional concerns.
India, too, has constructed dams on the Brahmaputra. However, analysts argue that both nations have failed to adequately address the environmental and social impacts of these projects. “Both countries need to coordinate to manage water releases responsibly,” said Rafiq Dossani, an Asia-Pacific analyst.
Despite this, meaningful collaboration remains elusive. The absence of a comprehensive water-sharing treaty exacerbates insecurities, particularly given the history of border conflicts. “India’s distrust of China is rooted in repeated territorial disputes,” Singh noted, making a treaty unlikely in the near future.
Proposals for Cooperation
Experts advocate for a separate water management dialogue to prevent the dam from becoming another flashpoint in Sino-Indian relations. Shibani Mehta from Carnegie India suggests that delinking water issues from broader bilateral disputes could help alleviate tensions.
“China’s concerns over India’s growing ties with the US and Quad partners overshadow water management discussions,” she added. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, comprising India, the US, Japan, and Australia, has intensified efforts to counter China’s influence in the region.
Geopolitical Implications
As climate change exacerbates water scarcity across Asia, the strategic importance of rivers like the Yarlung Tsangpo will only grow. India must develop innovative strategies to counter China’s upstream dominance. Greater collaboration with allies such as the US and Japan could pressure Beijing to adopt more transparent and cooperative water management practices.
While the dam poses significant challenges, it is unlikely to trigger immediate conflict. “The water issue is significant but not severe enough to cause a confrontation,” Lidarev noted. However, it could fuel resentment and push India to leverage the issue in broader disputes with China.
Looking Ahead
China’s Himalayan mega-dam epitomizes the intricate interplay of environmental, geopolitical, and humanitarian concerns defining Sino-Indian relations. As the project advances, it will test both nations’ ability to manage these complex issues. Whether the dam becomes a tool for collaboration or another wedge in their rivalry depends on how each side approaches this sensitive matter.
Ultimately, the dam symbolizes the broader challenges facing Asia’s two largest nations. Its completion could either deepen divides or pave the way for unprecedented cooperation, shaping the future of this vital transboundary river.
