Janice R. Andrews
China’s Green Transition Shows Promise
China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, could see its CO2 emissions reach their peak by 2025, according to a new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS). This new research reflects growing optimism about the country’s efforts to reduce carbon emissions, especially from coal, which currently accounts for 80% of its fossil fuel-related emissions.
The report, based on expert surveys, suggests that 44% of industry and academic specialists believe China’s emissions will peak by 2025. Furthermore, 52% expect coal consumption to peak by the same year, which marks a significant step in China’s push to meet global climate targets.
Experts Become More Optimistic About China’s Transition
Over the last three years, experts’ views have shifted towards greater optimism regarding China’s energy transition. In 2022, 69% of experts believed China’s emissions would peak 15% above 2020 levels, but by 2024, this number dropped to 44%. The share of experts who think emissions have already peaked or will peak by 2025 has risen from just 15% in 2022 to 44% in 2024.
A significant contributor to this optimism is China’s rapid expansion of solar and wind power capacity, tighter controls on new fossil fuel projects, and the rapid growth of the electric vehicle (EV) market. In 2024, electric vehicles consistently made up more than 50% of all car sales in China.
Xunpeng Shi from ISETS states, “Achieving carbon neutrality in a fast-growing economy like China is challenging, but the country’s efforts are beginning to show results. The deployment of clean energy and industrial transformation are promising even greater benefits.”
Challenges and Achievements in the Energy Shift
China’s transition to a greener energy system has made strides, particularly in coal reduction. Between 2021 and 2025, China has implemented plans to strictly regulate coal use, with a phase-out expected to begin by 2026.
However, there are still challenges. CREA reports that energy consumption is continuing to outpace China’s GDP growth, a trend that could undermine the country’s ability to meet Paris Agreement targets. Emissions from total energy consumption and non-CO2 greenhouse gases continue to be areas of concern.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA, warns, “Although there’s growing optimism about emissions and the renewable energy shift, there’s still a lack of clarity about China’s emissions trajectory. This leaves the door open for emissions to rise until 2030, with slow reductions afterward. Such a scenario would make global climate goals almost unattainable.”
Policy and Strategic Plans for the Future
In order to stay on course with its green transition, China will need strong policy direction. An updated national climate plan, expected in February 2025, is crucial in setting the country’s emissions reduction strategy for the next decade.
China’s nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement will need to focus on accelerating the deployment of renewable energy and steering the economy toward a less energy-intensive growth model.
While China is making progress in sectors like transportation emissions and EV adoption, it still needs to make faster progress in cutting overall CO2 emissions and ensuring that energy consumption aligns with sustainable development goals.
A Crucial Milestone for Global Climate Goals
If China’s emissions peak by 2025, it would represent a significant achievement in the global fight against climate change. As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China’s efforts are pivotal in determining whether global climate targets can be met.
Despite the challenges, China’s transition presents a combination of hurdles and opportunities. The rapid growth of clean energy and industrial transformations could pave the way for further advancements, but meeting ambitious climate goals will require clear and decisive policies, more investments in renewables, and a shift toward a more sustainable economy.
As Xunpeng Shi points out, “While there’s optimism about China’s progress, continued effort is crucial to ensure that these gains contribute meaningfully to global climate targets.”
With the upcoming climate plan and continued advancements in green technologies, China could set an influential example for the rest of the world.
