Janice R. Andrews
China has emerged as Pakistan’s dominant arms supplier, providing 81% of its weapons imports over the past five years, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This marks a significant increase from the previous five-year period, where China accounted for 74% of Pakistan’s arms imports. The data highlights the deepening military partnership between the two nations, with Pakistan acquiring more advanced and diverse weapon systems from China, including long-range reconnaissance drones, guided-missile frigates, and fighter jets.
China’s Growing Role in Pakistan’s Defense
China has been Pakistan’s primary arms supplier since the 1990s, but the relationship has intensified in recent years. Between 2020 and 2024, Pakistan’s total arms imports surged by 61%, with China supplying the majority of these weapons. Key acquisitions include the Type 054A guided-missile frigates, J-10CE 4.5-generation fighter jets, and VT-4 battle tanks. Notably, Pakistan also received its first spy ship, the Rizwan, and advanced drones like the CH-4A, enhancing its reconnaissance and combat capabilities.
The SIPRI report underscores China’s willingness to provide Pakistan with cutting-edge military technology. Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher at SIPRI, noted that this reflects China’s trust in Pakistan and its strategic importance in South Asia. “China is Pakistan’s only real ally, the only one it can depend on when dealing with India,” Wezeman said.
Strategic Implications for South Asia
The growing military ties between China and Pakistan have significant implications for regional security, particularly in the context of Pakistan’s longstanding tensions with India. The two nuclear-armed neighbors have been locked in a series of border skirmishes since 2016, prompting Pakistan to ramp up its defense spending and rely more heavily on Chinese arms.
China’s support extends beyond arms sales. In April 2023, China delivered the first of eight Hangor II submarines to Pakistan as part of a $5 billion deal, one of the largest military contracts in recent years. Additionally, Pakistan has bolstered its air force with the JF-17 Block III fighter jets, jointly developed by China and Pakistan, which feature advanced radar systems.
Military analyst Song Zhongping suggested that China might even consider exporting its fifth-generation J-35 fighter jets to Pakistan if requested. This move could counterbalance India’s potential acquisition of advanced fighter jets like the American F-35 or Russian Su-57.
China’s Expanding Defense Industry
China’s ability to supply advanced weapons to Pakistan is a testament to its growing self-reliance in defense manufacturing. Over the past decade, China has made significant strides in developing indigenous military technology, from aircraft carriers to sixth-generation fighter jets. This progress has enabled Beijing to offer a wider range of sophisticated weapons to its strategic partners.
According to SIPRI, China accounted for 5.9% of global arms exports between 2020 and 2024, with Pakistan being its largest buyer, representing 63% of total Chinese arms exports. Other major recipients include Serbia and Thailand, but Pakistan remains the cornerstone of China’s defense export strategy.
Declining U.S. Influence in Pakistan
While China’s role in Pakistan’s defense sector has grown, the United States has scaled back its arms exports to the country. SIPRI attributes this shift to Washington’s dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s efforts against the Taliban, its nuclear program, and its lack of democratic development. As a result, Pakistan has turned increasingly to China to meet its defense needs.
This realignment has contributed to the emergence of distinct geopolitical camps in Asia. Wezeman noted that the “China camp,” which includes Pakistan, is increasingly at odds with the “non-China camp,” led by the U.S. and India. Arms sales, he argued, play a crucial role in shaping these alliances.
Regional Stability and Arms Control
The deepening military partnership between China and Pakistan has raised concerns about regional stability. Wezeman warned that the India-Pakistan rivalry remains a potential flashpoint that could draw major powers into conflict. “Effective arms control and crisis control mechanisms are of the utmost importance to prevent this from happening,” he emphasized.
The SIPRI report highlights the need for diplomatic efforts to address the underlying tensions in South Asia. As China continues to expand its influence through arms exports, the region’s security dynamics are likely to become increasingly complex.
Conclusion
China’s dominance in Pakistan’s arms imports underscores the strategic partnership between the two nations and reflects Beijing’s growing capabilities in defense manufacturing. With Pakistan acquiring advanced weapon systems from China, the balance of power in South Asia is shifting, raising concerns about regional stability. As geopolitical camps solidify, the need for dialogue and arms control mechanisms becomes more urgent to prevent escalation in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
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