Janice R. Andrews
LOS ANGELES— The Central American Gyre (CAG) is an important weather trend for meteorologists to keep an eye on as hurricane season starts. There are a lot of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean because of this big low-pressure system. In general, the CAG forms during the wet months of May through November, and its effects can be felt hundreds of miles away.
The National Hurricane Centre is keeping an eye on a system in the gyre that has a 20% chance of turning into a tropical storm. The gyre’s ability to cause severe weather makes it an important part of the current storm season, even though the chances of it developing are still low.
How do you explain the Central American Gyre?
It is a large area of low pressure in the atmosphere that forms in late spring and early autumn. In contrast to a tight storm, the CAG is spread out and affects a large area. There are times when the gyre can turn into a storm, but most of the time it’s just a place where tropical storms can grow into hurricanes.
Extreme weather like heavy rain, floods, and mudslides often happen in Central America because of this weather trend. Smaller low-pressure areas can break off from the gyre and get stronger, turning into storms when the sea is warm and the winds are blowing in the right direction.
What the Central American Gyre Means for Hurricane Season
The gyre doesn’t directly cause hurricanes, but it does make conditions that are good for storms to form. Several big storms have grown from the gyre in the past, like Hurricane Michael in 2018 (which became a Category 5 hurricane and did a lot of damage).
Most storms that come from the gyre happen in the eastern Pacific, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico. When these storms get close to the U.S., they can still bring dangerous winds, heavy rain, and floods. Meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a low-pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico right now. It’s still not likely to turn into a tropical storm, but because it’s so close to the U.S., it needs to be closely watched.
Why is it so hard to tell what tropical storms will happen from the CAG?
Because the Central American Gyre is so big and disorganised, it is hard to predict storms that will come from it. Because it is so broad, it is hard to tell where and when tropical changes will happen. Models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS) sometimes predict storms that don’t happen because the gyre’s wetness has trouble organising into a clear storm.
Even with all the problems, meteorologists know that there is always a higher chance of tropical disturbances early and late in the storm season, when the CAG is busiest. Because of this, systems in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean need to be closely watched.
What to Expect for the Rest of Hurricane Season
Conditions in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are getting better for tropical storms to form as hurricane season goes on. The Atlantic hasn’t had much going on yet, but the Central American Gyre is still a big deal in the Caribbean and Gulf. Long-range predictions say that more tropical systems might form in the next few weeks, but none are visible right now.
For the rest of the hurricane season, the Central American Gyre will continue to be an important weather trend to keep an eye on because it affects how storms form.
