Janice R. Andrews
Antarctic Tropical Storm Beryl Emerges
East of the Windward Islands, tropical storm Beryl developed on Friday night and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday. Beryl is the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC). About 1,100 miles southeast of the Windward Islands at the easternmost point of the Caribbean, it intensified into a tropical storm.
State of Affairs and Movement
Beryl is traveling westward at a speed of roughly 18 mph as of the most recent 11 p.m. advisory, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. By Sunday afternoon, Beryl is expected to strengthen into a hurricane according to the NHC’s forecast. It is predicted that the storm will move across the Windward Islands late on Sunday and early on Monday, bringing with it the possibility of hurricane-force winds, hazardous storm surges, and waves. As a result, on Saturday, watches for hurricanes and tropical storms are probably going to be issued for a portion of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.
Impact on Affected Areas Potentially
With three to six inches of rain predicted, the next storm could bring localized flooding to regions that are already at risk, including Barbados and neighboring islands. Furthermore, potentially fatal surf and rip currents are anticipated. On Sunday, hurricane hunter planes are expected to examine the storm, offering more precise information to improve forecasts.
Atmospheric and Forecast Conditions
Those with an interest in the Caribbean’s west and center should keep a careful eye on Beryl’s development. It is noteworthy that projections made four or five days ahead of time have a larger forecast margin of error. When Beryl approaches the Caribbean Sea on Sunday night, its winds may gust to 105 mph. Although the atmosphere usually prevents storms from intensifying in June, Beryl may develop into a powerful hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands, according to certain computer models.
Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, forecasters disagree over where it might go. According to the official forecast cone, by Tuesday evening, the storm’s center might be over or close to Haiti and the western half of the Dominican Republic; by Wednesday evening, it might even be over Jamaica or eastern Cuba.
Historical Background and Importance
Few storms have formed in the eastern or central tropical Atlantic this early in the year, according to the NHC. Beryl would break the record for the furthest eastward hurricane formation in the tropical Atlantic this early in the season if it strengthens into a hurricane by Sunday. According to Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University and the primary author of its seasonal hurricane outlook, this would surpass the previous record, which was set in 1933.
East of the Lesser Antilles, early-season activity is typically linked to extremely active hurricane seasons. Recent events support this; last week, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeastern Mexico, resulting in substantial flooding and fatalities. Additionally, Alberto had an impact on Texas’s Gulf Coast, causing Surfside Beach, a seaside community south of Houston, to be submerged under several feet of water.
Extra Meteorological Systems
On Saturday, a low-pressure system is expected to pass over the Yucatan Peninsula from the northwest Caribbean. The NHC has given it a 40% chance of developing over the next 48 hours as it re-emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are predicted to be favorable for further development. Through the weekend, this system is expected to bring rain and strong winds to portions of Mexico and Central America.
In addition, showers and thunderstorms are being produced by a tropical wave that is centered several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, this system has a 40% chance of developing during the next seven days.
Highly Anticipated Hurricane Season
It is anticipated that this hurricane season will be above average, with Beryl being the most recent storm. In May of this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 would include between 17 and 25 named storms. The number of storms predicted in NOAA’s preseason prediction is at its highest point ever. Eighteen to eighteen are predicted to develop into hurricanes, with four to seven of them being significant hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The National Weather Service Director, Ken Graham, stated in May that “all the ingredients are in place for an active season.” The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be “extraordinary,” with an 85% probability of being above average, according to NOAA Director Rick Spinrad. In 2020, there were thirty named storms throughout the season, which set a record. Based on data from 1991 to 2020, on average of 14 tropical storms, seven of which turn into hurricanes, occur each year.
