Janice R. Andrews
The upcoming U.S. presidential election presents Beijing with a complex choice between two candidates who both maintain firm stances against China, albeit through different approaches. Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump signals a significant warming in U.S.-China relations, as both candidates embrace the bipartisan consensus of maintaining pressure on Beijing.
The Shared Foundation
The foundation of American policy toward China remains largely unchanged since Trump initiated his trade war. The Biden administration built upon these policies, implementing technology restrictions and strengthening regional alliances. This established framework appears set to continue regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins the presidency.
Trump’s Strategic Vision
Trump’s potential return to office suggests an intensification of economic pressure, particularly through tariffs. His campaign promises include potential 200% tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing shows aggression toward Taiwan. While his confrontational economic approach concerns Beijing, his isolationist tendencies present an interesting dynamic:
- Advantages for Beijing:
- Potential weakening of U.S. international alliances
- Reduced American global engagement
- Opportunities for China to expand regional influence
- Disadvantages:
- Unpredictable policy decisions
- Aggressive economic measures
- Heightened rhetoric around Taiwan
Harris’s Diplomatic Approach
As Biden’s successor candidate, Harris represents continuity in America’s China strategy, but with notable differences:
- Core Elements:
- Maintained pressure on technological access
- Continued focus on Indo-Pacific containment
- Support for international alliances
- Distinguishing Features:
- Greater emphasis on diplomatic engagement
- More measured approach to Taiwan
- Focus on domestic priorities while maintaining international commitments
The Taiwan Factor
The Taiwan issue remains central to both candidates’ China policies:
- Trump emphasizes deterrence through economic threats
- Harris likely favors maintaining strategic ambiguity
- Both candidates signal continued support for Taiwan, though through different methods
Strategic Implications for Beijing
Chinese leadership faces a nuanced choice:
- Trump’s Scenario:
- Potential benefits from weakened U.S. alliances
- Risks from unpredictable economic policies
- Greater uncertainty in diplomatic relations
- Harris’s Scenario:
- More predictable diplomatic environment
- Continued technological restrictions
- Sustained alliance-based pressure
Looking Forward
Beijing appears to be preparing for continued strategic competition regardless of the election outcome. Neither candidate offers a clear advantage for China’s interests, suggesting that U.S.-China relations will remain characterized by:
- Ongoing technological rivalry
- Continued economic competition
- Persistent strategic tension
The fundamental nature of U.S.-China competition appears set to continue, with differences primarily in style rather than substance between the candidates. Beijing’s strategy likely focuses on preparing for either scenario while maintaining its own strategic objectives regardless of the election outcome.
