Janice R. Andrews
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) states that by Monday night, a tropical disturbance circling the Atlantic Ocean may become Tropical Storm Ernesto. Potential Tropical Storm 5 might become a hurricane by midweek if it keeps intensifying as expected, which could endanger the Caribbean and the East Coast of the United States.
Prognosis for Storms and Possible Effects
The tropical disturbance, which was positioned several hundred miles east-southeast of Antigua, was the subject of warnings that the NHC started to issue on Sunday. Forecasts suggest that by Wednesday evening, the system may strengthen into a hurricane, therefore meteorologists are closely watching its development as it gets closer to tropical storm status.
On Wednesday, the system is predicted to pass over or close to Puerto Rico before quickly veering northward into the open Atlantic. Still, the difficulties in locating the storm’s original core raises a great deal of ambiguity about its course. Residents in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and along the US East Coast are being warned by the NHC to remain vigilant and keep an eye out for updates.
Although the storm’s precise path is still unknown, current forecasts indicate that Texas and Louisiana along the Gulf of Mexico coast are likely to be spared from any direct damage. But if the storm intensifies, Florida’s east coast may see bigger waves and a higher chance of rip currents.
Earlier Storms and Present Situations
Following Tropical Storm Debby, which has pounded the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic with copious amounts of rain and powerful winds, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to emerge. Since the Atlantic hurricane season is about to reach a more active phase, this string of meteorological occurrences has caused increased caution throughout the area.
Scientists have noted that the absence of wind shear, which is a circumstance in which winds blow in opposite directions at various altitudes and can impede storm development, is contributing to the present tropical disturbance’s increasing organization. Zack Taylor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, believes that this advantageous circumstance will probably help the system gradually intensify.
The disturbance may intensify into a tropical storm with wind speeds ranging from 39 to 73 mph if it becomes a tropical depression with maximum wind speeds of 38 mph. In the event that this occurs, the storm will be formally called Ernesto, and it has the potential to strengthen further into a hurricane.
A Busy Season of Hurricanes Up Front
Ernesto’s possible development fits forecasts for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) experts increased the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season to 90% a few days ago. According to the most recent NOAA projection, this season will see the formation of 17 to 24 named storms, with 8 to 13 of those developing into hurricanes. In contrast, there are typically seven hurricanes and fourteen named storms every year.
These forecasts take into account the four storms that have developed so far this year, including Tropical Storm Debby, which is presently impacting the East Coast, and the fatal and catastrophic Hurricane Beryl.
The hurricane season forecasts by Colorado State University (CSU) meteorologists have also been revised. A total of 23 named storms, including 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, are anticipated.
Traveling with the Tropical Unrest
The tropical disturbance was heading westward toward Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as of Sunday. It is recommended that residents in these locations exercise caution and keep a careful eye on the storm’s progress. The storm’s future is still unknown after midweek; meteorologists are unsure if it will continue along the northeast coast or take a detour into the southeastern United States.
According to Taylor, “a lot depends on exactly how the storm forms,” and it’s possible that the storm may travel completely away from the United States.
People living near the Atlantic coast, especially those in Florida, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, should keep themselves updated and ready for any effects Tropical Storm Ernesto may have.
