Janice R. Andrews
NASA has unveiled alarming new data indicating that Asteroid 2024 YR4 could pose a significant risk to some of the world’s most densely populated regions if it collides with Earth. The asteroid, first discovered on December 27, 2024, by a NASA-funded telescope in Chile, has been identified as having a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth in 2032—the highest threat level ever recorded for an asteroid.
The potential impact zone, dubbed the “risk corridor,” spans a vast area, including the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. Major cities along this trajectory, such as Bogota (Colombia), Mumbai (India), and Dhaka (Bangladesh), are home to tens of millions of people, raising concerns about the potential for catastrophic damage and loss of life.
Rising Threat Levels
Initially, NASA estimated a 2.3% chance of collision, but recent observations of the asteroid’s orbit have pushed the risk higher. The European Space Agency (ESA) has also weighed in, estimating a 2.8% chance of impact—higher than the threat posed by the infamous Apophis asteroid in 2004. While Apophis was later deemed non-threatening, 2024 YR4’s risk level remains a cause for global concern.
What We Know About 2024 YR4
The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 to 90 meters in diameter, with its largest size comparable to the height of the Statue of Liberty. It currently holds a rating of 3 out of 10 on the Torino Scale, a system used to assess the threat level of near-Earth objects. No other observed asteroid has a rating above 0, underscoring the unique danger posed by 2024 YR4.
Monitoring and Mitigation Efforts
NASA plans to continue tracking the asteroid until April, after which it will be too distant to observe until 2028. During this time, scientists hope to refine their understanding of its trajectory and the Earth’s rotation, which could either increase or decrease the risk of collision. In March 2025, the James Webb Space Telescope will determine the asteroid’s exact size, providing critical data for assessing the likelihood of an impact.
If the threat level escalates, global emergency response teams will be alerted, with support from ESA’s Near Earth Object Coordination Centre. Space agencies are also prepared to launch planetary defense missions. In 2022, NASA’s DART mission successfully altered the orbit of the asteroid Dimorphos by intentionally colliding with it. ESA’s Hera mission, launched in October 2023, aims to gather further data from the DART impact site to enhance future planetary defense strategies.
A Global Call to Action
While the risk of collision remains uncertain, the discovery of 2024 YR4 highlights the importance of continued investment in asteroid detection and planetary defense systems. As NASA and ESA work to monitor and mitigate the threat, the world watches closely, hoping for a resolution that ensures the safety of millions living in the asteroid’s potential impact zone.
For now, 2024 YR4 serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of space and the need for global collaboration to protect our planet from cosmic threats. Stay tuned for updates as scientists work to unravel the mysteries of this potentially hazardous asteroid.
