Janice R. Andrews
SUMMARY
The betting markets feel that President Joe Biden’s dismal showing in the presidential debate last week has hurt his chances of defeating former President Donald Trump in November’s elections. It also raises the possibility that Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, will take his place on the ballot.
Important Information
Falling Odds: As of early Wednesday, Biden’s chances of being the Democratic nominee in November had dropped from a reasonably assured 90% on Thursday morning to 49%, according to prediction market platform Polymarket.
Steep Decline: Following some swings over the weekend, Biden had a sharp drop in support from Democrats on Tuesday, going from 78% to 49%.
Harris’ Growing prospects: The betting market is placing its money on Harris as Biden’s prospects have declined. Harris’ odds increased from 1% prior to the debate to 35% early on Wednesday, according to Polymarket.
PredictIt Data: After Biden was consistently above 84 cents per share the week before the debate, PredictIt, another prediction site, has assigned him even worse odds of 40 cents per share (or a 40% chance), matching him with Harris
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Harris Rises: Harris rose from 14 cents per share on Monday to 40 cents on Wednesday, outpacing all other possible Democratic nominees on PredictIt’s market in the wake of the debate.
SURPRISING FACT
While the betting market on PredictIt suggests Biden fell behind Trump in the presidential race in mid-May, the president’s shaky debate performance appears to have convinced bookmakers he has a worse chance than Harris of winning the November election. Wednesday morning’s odds for the question “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” show Trump leading with a 58% chance, followed by the vice president at 21% and Biden at 19%.
BIG NUMBER
53%. That is the betting market’s prediction on the chances of Biden dropping out of the presidential race before the Democratic convention, according to Polymarket.
TANGENT
While Harris is the bookmaker’s favorite to replace Biden if he drops out, a Reuters-Ipsos poll suggests voters believe a different Democratic candidate has the best chance of beating Trump in November. In a survey conducted early this week, former First Lady Michelle Obama emerged as the only candidate comfortably ahead of Trump in a direct match. The former first lady, however, has repeatedly said she has no interest in running for president. While Biden and Trump are at an even 40% each in a head-to-head, Obama polled 11 points ahead of Trump at 50% to 39%. In the same poll, nearly a third of all Democrat voters (32%) said Biden should drop out of the race after his debate performance.
