Janice R. Andrews
Concerns are mounting over Argentina potentially withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement under President Javier Milei. Known for his climate skepticism, Milei’s actions and rhetoric signal a shift that could have profound implications for Argentina’s climate policies and its standing on the global stage.
Milei’s Approach: A Departure from Climate Priorities
Since assuming office in December 2023, Milei has deprioritized environmental concerns. He downgraded the Environment Ministry to a sub-secretariat, eliminated forest conservation funds, and introduced laws promoting the oil and gas sector. Describing climate change as a “socialist lie,” Milei’s administration reflects his dismissal of global environmental challenges.
Most recently, Argentina’s delegation abruptly withdrew from COP29 negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, halting their participation in discussions on climate financing. Speculation is now rife that Argentina may withdraw from the Paris Agreement entirely, further aligning with Milei’s ally, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who also plans to exit the accord.
What Would Argentina’s Withdrawal Mean?
The Paris Agreement, established in 2015, seeks to limit global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. While Argentina contributes less than 1% of global emissions, its withdrawal could disrupt international solidarity on climate action.
Maria Victoria Emanuelli from 350.org warned that stepping away from the accord would jeopardize funding opportunities for Argentina’s climate initiatives, particularly for vulnerable communities most affected by climate-related disasters.
“Pulling out of global discussions weakens Argentina’s ability to shape international trade, climate finance, and cooperation,” said Andrew Forth from Climate Group. “This decision risks leaving the country ill-prepared to handle escalating climate impacts.”
Argentina’s Climate Challenges
Argentina faces numerous climate threats due to its diverse geography, spanning glaciers, deserts, and subtropical regions. The impacts of climate change are already being felt:
- Rising Temperatures: The summer of 2022-2023 saw record-breaking heat, with temperatures at their highest in six decades. A study by World Weather Attribution found these heatwaves were made 60 times more likely due to human-driven climate change.
- Droughts and Floods: The nation is increasingly vulnerable to agricultural droughts and catastrophic flooding, jeopardizing its economy and food security.
- Melting Glaciers: Accelerated glacier retreat threatens water supplies and contributes to rising sea levels.
Under a 2°C global warming scenario, Argentina is projected to experience a 33% rise in agricultural droughts and a dramatic increase in the duration of heatwaves, according to the CMCC Foundation.
Argentina’s Current Climate Commitments
Although Argentina has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 under the Paris Agreement, its policies are rated as “critically insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker (CAT). The country remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, which account for 88% of its energy production.
Argentina has also fast-tracked gas pipeline construction, expanded oil production, and pursued offshore fossil fuel exploration, further straying from its climate goals. Despite having vast potential for renewable energy, such as wind and solar power, these resources remain underutilized.
What Happens if Argentina Leaves the Paris Agreement?
While President Milei’s threats to exit the Paris Agreement have raised alarm, experts note that such a move might face significant legal and institutional obstacles.
“Argentina’s participation in the Paris Agreement is backed by law, making it unlikely to withdraw in the near term,” said Veronica Geese, energy secretary for Santa Fe province. “Many local governments remain committed to advancing climate goals, regardless of national policy.”
However, an exit could isolate Argentina internationally. Niklas Höhne of the NewClimate Institute cautioned that withdrawing would damage Argentina’s trade relationships, especially with regions like the EU, which are introducing carbon border taxes.
“Argentina risks losing its appeal as a trading partner for nations prioritizing climate action,” Höhne emphasized.
Lessons from the U.S. Exit
Milei’s stance mirrors former U.S. President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017. Although the U.S. rejoined under President Joe Biden, Trump’s actions demonstrated how a single country’s exit can disrupt global efforts temporarily.
“Global climate initiatives will persist with or without Argentina,” said Oscar Soria of The Common Initiative. He noted, however, that Argentina’s withdrawal could undermine regional collaboration in Latin America, where shared challenges require unified responses.
Domestic Resistance and Regional Impact
Milei’s climate policies face opposition at home. Provincial governments, such as those in Santa Fe, are pursuing renewable energy projects and other climate initiatives to counter federal policies. Grassroots movements and civil society groups are also pushing back against policies that threaten Argentina’s environmental progress.
Regionally, Argentina’s departure from the Paris Agreement could weaken Latin America’s collective climate strategy. With countries in the region already vulnerable to climate extremes, Argentina’s isolation could hinder broader collaboration.
Charting a Way Forward
Despite Milei’s climate skepticism, subnational governments and international actors could help steer Argentina toward continued climate engagement:
- Provincial Leadership: Local governments like Santa Fe are advancing climate solutions through renewable energy projects and emission reduction strategies, demonstrating resilience despite federal policies.
- International Incentives: Offering trade benefits or climate finance incentives could encourage Argentina to remain aligned with the Paris Agreement.
- Public Advocacy: Raising awareness about climate change’s tangible impacts may help mobilize public support for stronger climate policies.
Conclusion
Argentina’s potential departure from the Paris Climate Agreement would have wide-ranging implications. While its share of global emissions is small, leaving the accord would undermine international climate cooperation and isolate the country economically and diplomatically.
Domestically, vulnerable populations would face escalating climate risks, including droughts, heatwaves, and floods. On the global stage, Argentina’s exit could hinder progress in Latin America, a region heavily reliant on collective action to address shared challenges.
As the world watches Argentina’s next steps, the determination of local governments and civil society will likely play a critical role in maintaining the country’s environmental commitments. The stakes are high—not just for Argentina, but for the broader fight against climate change.
