Janice R. Andrews
The race for president in 2024 is getting tougher. A new poll from Emerson College Polling and The Hill shows that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied in key swing states. In the seven swing states that were looked at, Trump has a slight edge in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. In Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada, Harris has the upper hand. With 19 Electoral College votes, Pennsylvania is a very important state, but the race is still very close and hard to predict.
These seven states hold a total of 93 Electoral College votes, making them very important to the result of the 2024 election. Both campaigns are putting a lot of effort into winning over voters in these swing states because they know that a win in any of them could mean the difference between winning and losing the presidency. At this point, Trump would get 37 Electoral College votes if he stays ahead in the three states where he has a numerical edge. The same thing will happen to Harris if she stays ahead in the three states where she currently leads.
Nevada, which tends to vote blue, and North Carolina, which tends to vote red, are also expected to play important parts. But the rest of the states, which are known for being able to swing elections, have had very close races in recent years, making the 2024 race even less predictable. There isn’t much difference between these competitive states according to the polls, so it’s really a toss-up.
Independent and unsure voters in these key states may end up being the most important group of voters in the 2024 election. According to the study, Harris has a big lead among independents in six of the seven key states. Trump only has a big lead among independents in Nevada. This could be very important because Nevada has been strongly Democratic in recent elections, even though it only has six Electoral College votes and isn’t very powerful.
In 2016, Trump won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Nevada was the only state that went for the Democrats. But in 2020, five of these six states changed their votes and went blue for Joe Biden. This shows how quickly voting trends can change and how the political scene is changing.
As the race gets closer, both Trump and Harris are stepping up their efforts in these key states. Both sides are working harder to sway people who haven’t chosen yet, making the race for these important votes even more intense. The result of this very close election will probably depend on how many people vote and how well each party does in the battleground states.
