Janice R. Andrews
The most recent Quinnipiac University survey, which was completed between January 25 and January 29, 2024, shows that Joe Biden is now leading Donald Trump in the eyes of registered voters. According to the most recent data, Biden is ahead by six points, 50 to 44 percent. From a one-point lead in the previous December poll, this indicates an increase.
One significant change is the number of female voters, where Biden now leads Trump by 22 points, or 58 to 36 percent. Biden’s edge over women in December was less, 53 to 41 percent. Analysts believe that Biden’s overall lead has been significantly influenced by this rise in female voters.
Strong partisanship is evident in the poll, with 96% of Democrats voting for Biden and 91% of Republicans for Trump. Biden has a 52 percent edge over Trump among independents, while Trump has 40 percent.
A possible general election scenario for 2024 was also examined in the poll. With third-party and independent candidates included, Biden took home 39 percent of the vote, Trump 37 percent, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 14 percent, independent Cornel West 3 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2 percent.
Notably, Nikki Haley, Trump’s final opponent for the Republican nomination, is projected to defeat Biden by five points, 47 to 42 percent, in a possible battle. With 77 percent of the vote, Trump leads Haley by 21 percent in the Republican primary.
Even while Biden’s approval rating—which stands at 41%—is at its best point since June, 55% still disapprove. Regarding the economy, 42% of respondents are in favour and 57% are against.
Opinions on foreign affairs differ. 47% of respondents are satisfied with Biden’s handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, compared to 46% who are not. 37 percent are in favour of foreign policy generally, while 57 percent are against it.
The survey goes into further detail on particular topics and finds that people’s impression of Biden is not favourable. Merely 34% of respondents are satisfied with his handling of the Gaza War, and 28% are satisfied with his handling of the US-Mexico border problem.
84 percent of voters are concerned about the US getting dragged into a Middle East conflict in the wake of a strike in Jordan that claimed three US military lives.
When asked to rank the importance of national concerns, 24% of voters said that maintaining democracy was the most crucial, followed by the economy and immigration (20%).
Notably, issue prioritisation clearly demonstrates the partisan divide. Democracy is important to 39% of Democrats and only 12% of Republicans. However, only 12% of Democrats prioritise immigration, compared to 38% of Republicans. Independents prioritise immigration (19%), the economy (18%), and the preservation of democracy (23%).
In conclusion, the survey demonstrates Biden’s growing lead, changes in the composition of the electorate, and divergent views on particular subjects as the political scene changes in anticipation of the 2024 race.
