Janice R. Andrews
Germany’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the country’s oldest political party, finds itself at a crossroads following a disastrous federal election result. Despite a recent victory in Hamburg’s parliamentary elections, the mood within the party remains grim as it struggles to regain its footing amid declining voter support and internal divisions.
A Glimmer of Hope in Hamburg
On March 2, the SPD managed a modest victory in Hamburg’s parliamentary elections, securing 33.5% of the vote. This was a significant improvement compared to its dismal 16.4% result in the February 23 federal election, its worst performance since 1887. Party co-chair Saskia Esken described the Hamburg result as a reason to “smile,” but the celebration was short-lived.
The federal election outcome highlighted a decades-long decline for the SPD, once a dominant force in German politics. The party’s 25.7% share in the 2021 federal election now appears to be an anomaly, attributed more to the missteps of its main rival, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), than to its own strengths.
A Party in Freefall
The SPD’s recent struggles are emblematic of a deeper crisis. In the February election, the party lost 1.7 million voters to the conservative CDU/CSU alliance and 720,000 to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Another million voters defected to the Left Party and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).
The party’s support base is also aging. While it garnered 20% of the vote among those over 60, only 12% of voters aged 18-34 backed the SPD. This generational divide underscores the party’s failure to connect with younger Germans, who perceive it as out of touch with their concerns.
No Longer the Workers’ Party?
Once known as the party of the working class, the SPD is increasingly seen as neglecting the interests of hardworking Germans. A survey by Infratest-dimap revealed that 55% of respondents believe the SPD cares more about the unemployed than low-income workers. Only 14% think the party is capable of handling asylum and refugee policy effectively.
Former SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel acknowledged this perception, stating, “We have given the impression that those who don’t work are more important to us than those who do. And that is fatal for a social democratic party.”
Internal Divisions and Coalition Dilemmas
The SPD’s leadership has vowed to renew the party’s identity as the “People’s party of the center-left.” Co-chair Lars Klingbeil has promised a “renewal of program, organization, and staff.” However, the party faces the dual challenge of rebuilding while remaining in government, likely as a junior partner to the CDU/CSU.
This prospect has sparked discontent among SPD members, many of whom question the value of another coalition with the conservatives. Since 2005, the SPD has entered three such alliances, each time emerging weaker. The party’s left wing is particularly wary of making too many concessions during coalition negotiations, warning that such compromises could further alienate its base.
A Fragile Unity
The SPD has long been plagued by internal divisions between its left and conservative factions. Under the leadership of co-chairs Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the party has managed to present a united front. However, the federal election has reignited internal debates, with the left wing pushing for a stronger stance on social justice and workers’ rights.
The party’s future hinges on its ability to balance these internal pressures while addressing the concerns of its dwindling voter base. Failure to do so could result in further electoral losses and a continued erosion of its influence.
The Road Ahead
The SPD’s immediate challenge is to navigate coalition negotiations with the CDU/CSU. Key issues include funding for Germany’s military and infrastructure, with the SPD insisting that these investments not come at the expense of social spending.
The CDU/CSU, meanwhile, faces its own pressures. Having ruled out an alliance with the far-right AfD, it needs the SPD to form a stable government. This dynamic gives the SPD some leverage, but it also raises the stakes. If the party fails to secure a coalition agreement that satisfies its members, its leadership could face a backlash.
Conclusion: A Party at a Crossroads
Germany’s oldest political party is at a critical juncture. The SPD must confront its existential crisis by reconnecting with voters, addressing internal divisions, and redefining its role in a rapidly changing political landscape.
The Hamburg victory offers a glimmer of hope, but it is far from a solution. As the SPD grapples with its identity and future, one thing is clear: the party must adapt or risk fading into irrelevance. For now, the SPD remains between a rock and a hard place, struggling to balance renewal with the demands of governance in a fractured political environment.
