Janice R. Andrews
In a significant development at the Munich Security Conference, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb revealed that the United States has asked European allies to fill out a detailed questionnaire regarding their potential contributions to Ukraine’s security guarantees. The move aims to outline how many troops and capabilities European nations could deploy to help end the war in Ukraine.
Stubb confirmed the report during a press conference, stating, “The Americans have provided Europeans with a questionnaire on what would be possible.” He emphasized that the questionnaire forces European nations to decide whether they will respond individually or collectively. This step underscores the growing pressure on Europe to take a more active role in resolving the conflict.
The revelation comes amid heightened tensions over recent comments by former US President Donald Trump, who suggested that peace talks between the US and Russia could begin “immediately.” Stubb, however, clarified that “nothing has started” and urged Europe to remain calm. Trump’s remarks sparked widespread concern across Europe, with fears that Ukraine and its European allies could be sidelined in any negotiations.
Adding to the unease, US State Secretary Pete Hegseth described Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and reclaim its pre-2014 borders as “unrealistic.” These comments were seen as a potential concession to Russia without securing any guarantees in return, further unsettling European leaders.
Stubb, a seasoned diplomat who chaired the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) during the 2008 Georgia peace deal, outlined a three-phase approach to peace talks. The first phase, which he called “pre-negotiations,” focuses on exerting maximum pressure on Russia while ensuring Ukraine remains in a strong position. The second phase would involve a ceasefire, border demarcation, and confidence-building measures. The final phase would entail formal negotiations.
However, Stubb stressed that these phases cannot proceed without clear security arrangements for Ukraine, led by Kyiv and supported by the EU and the US. “The only thing that Russia and Putin understand is power,” he said, emphasizing the need for a unified strategy.
The US questionnaire, according to Stubb, should be seen as a positive step, providing allies with time to prepare. He urged Europe to focus on creating “sustainable security arrangements” for Ukraine rather than worrying about who will be at the negotiating table. “I think the bottom line is very clear: the negotiating table, if there is a table, will be composed of Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and Europe in one form or another,” he said.
However, General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, cast doubt on Europe’s involvement in potential peace talks. Speaking at the same conference, Kellogg stated, “I’m from the school of realism. I think that’s not going to happen,” suggesting that Europe’s participation is not guaranteed.
The differing perspectives highlight the complexities of the situation and the challenges in achieving a unified approach. Stubb’s call for Europe to “talk less and do more” reflects the urgency of the moment. “What worries me is that we’re seeing diplomacy, which is all over the place. I see a lot of people here who are upset and who are not happy with the situation. But my question is, okay, what are you going to do about it?” he asked.
As the war in Ukraine continues, the US questionnaire signals a push for greater European involvement in securing a lasting peace. However, with conflicting views on Europe’s role and the lack of a clear strategy, the path forward remains uncertain. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Europe can unite to support Ukraine and contribute to a resolution that ensures stability and security in the region.
In the meantime, Stubb’s message is clear: Europe must act decisively and collaboratively to address the crisis. The world is watching, and the stakes could not be higher.
