Janice R. Andrews
As NATO enters 2025, it faces a series of critical challenges that will shape its future. Strengthening defenses against Russia, continuing support for Ukraine, and navigating the unpredictable leadership of U.S. President Donald Trump are high on the alliance’s agenda. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte set the tone for the upcoming year with a powerful speech that underscored the proximity of potential conflict to NATO’s borders.
Growing Threats on NATO’s Doorstep
“From Brussels, it takes one day to drive to Ukraine,” Rutte said in a December address at Carnegie Europe. “Russian bombs are falling that close. Iranian drones are flying nearby. And just beyond that, North Korean soldiers are in battle.”
Rutte’s words emphasize the urgency for NATO members to enhance defense spending and bolster their collective security. His call for increased public support for defense spending reflects NATO’s need to strengthen its capacity to resist Russian aggression and provide continued assistance to Ukraine.
Will Increased Defense Spending Win Over Trump?
European NATO nations have already been working toward meeting the 2% GDP defense spending target, but President Trump’s potential second term could shift priorities even further. Trump has consistently pressured NATO members to meet their defense obligations, even suggesting he might pull the U.S. out of the alliance if they fail to do so.
In light of this, NATO is considering raising the defense spending target to 3% or even 4%. “We will need more time to consult among allies, but it is considerably more than 2%,” Rutte confirmed.
Experts predict that Trump will push for a higher spending target and argue that European allies should offer incentives he views as favorable. Gesine Weber of the German Marshall Fund suggested that Europe could consider a model where the U.S. serves as a “backstop” while Europeans take the lead on defense within Europe.
European Efforts to Strengthen NATO
To ensure the alliance is better prepared for future threats, NATO has launched several key initiatives. The Steadfast Defender exercise, NATO’s largest military exercise since the Cold War, took place in 2024, highlighting the alliance’s commitment to readiness. NATO also revised its 2015 hybrid warfare strategy to adapt to increased acts of sabotage reportedly linked to Moscow.
Germany’s decision to send 5,000 troops to Lithuania by 2027 reflects European countries’ resolve to strengthen NATO’s border defense. However, gaps in critical areas such as intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and logistics remain a major challenge.
Experts warn that it could take up to 15 years to close the capabilities gap, particularly in areas like satellite surveillance and long-range transport helicopters, where European countries currently rely on the U.S. for support. “The Europeans have few satellites, and it can take up to 10 to 15 years to fill this gap,” said Rafael Loss, an expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
NATO’s Strategic Global Reach
NATO’s importance goes beyond Europe. The alliance has been expanding its ties with Indo-Pacific partners—Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan—to counter the growing influence of China and Russia. In 2025, NATO’s cooperation with these nations is expected to deepen, with more intelligence sharing and joint strategic efforts.
“NATO’s European members argue that the alliance not only strengthens European security but also bolsters Washington’s capacity to confront China in the Indo-Pacific,” Loss explained. By positioning NATO as a key tool in countering Beijing, European leaders hope to appeal to Trump’s “America First” stance and ensure continued U.S. engagement in the alliance.
Ukraine’s Membership: A Divisive Issue
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears its third anniversary, NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine remains a key focus. However, European leaders are increasingly aware that without U.S. backing, they would struggle to sustain the aid Ukraine needs to defend itself.
Budget constraints in Europe have made some nations reluctant to promise continued assistance to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO has become a significant point of contention. “Ukrainian membership in NATO will be a major point of friction within the alliance,” said Kristine Berzina, managing director of GMF Geostrategy North.
While most European nations support Ukraine’s NATO membership, Germany is one of the key holdouts. If Trump opposes Ukraine’s bid for membership, it could undermine European efforts to bring Kyiv into the alliance. “Zelenskyy is clear that Ukraine’s future belongs in NATO,” Berzina noted, but incoming U.S. Vice President JD Vance has voiced skepticism about this trajectory.
Trump’s Uncertain Approach to Ukraine
One of the biggest uncertainties in NATO’s future is how President Trump will handle Ukraine. During a December meeting in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an effort to sway Trump’s position on Ukraine.
“Nobody knows how Trump will proceed—that’s the big unknown,” said Loss. Trump’s policies toward Ukraine could vary significantly, from continued support to a sharp reduction in U.S. involvement. How he handles this issue will have major consequences for NATO’s future direction.
Moving Forward
2025 will be a pivotal year for NATO as it faces a series of critical challenges. Strengthening European defenses, closing capability gaps, and managing the alliance’s relationship with President Trump are all top priorities. European countries will need to work together to bolster NATO’s strategic position, while navigating internal divisions over issues like Ukraine’s membership.
As NATO’s future hangs in the balance, Rutte’s words resonate strongly: “The challenges are immense, but so are the stakes. We must act decisively to safeguard our collective security.” How the alliance responds to these challenges will determine its relevance in the coming years, both in Europe and beyond.
