Janice R. Andrews
Russia’s Strong Caution to Trump
Russia has sent a clear message to Donald Trump, warning him not to resume nuclear testing if he returns to office in 2025. Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister responsible for arms control, stated that Moscow would not rule out any actions in response to perceived U.S. provocations.
“The global situation is extremely tense right now. The U.S. policy in various forms is highly antagonistic toward us,” Ryabkov said in an interview with Kommersant newspaper. He recalled that during Trump’s first term, the U.S. government considered conducting its first nuclear test since 1992, sparking global concerns.
Rising Nuclear Tensions
This warning adds to growing fears of a new nuclear arms race. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously suggested that Russia might resume nuclear testing if the U.S. takes similar steps. Recently, Putin reduced Russia’s threshold for using nuclear weapons, citing attacks deep within Russian territory by U.S.-provided ATACMS missiles.
In response to Washington’s actions, Russia tested a new hypersonic missile, “Oreshnik,” which can destroy targets at nearly impossible speeds to intercept. The use of long-range missiles by the U.S. in Ukraine has raised the stakes even further, with Moscow warning that the risk of nuclear conflict is growing.
Trump and Putin: A Possible Peace Negotiation?
Despite the heightened tensions, Trump recently claimed that Putin is eager to meet with him and discuss potential peace options for the war in Ukraine. Putin seems open to negotiations, potentially hoping that a Trump presidency would yield a more favorable deal for Russia than under Biden.
However, concerns persist about Trump potentially restarting nuclear testing. During his previous time in office, Trump suggested the U.S. could resume nuclear tests as part of its strategy to modernize the nation’s nuclear arsenal. Experts warn that such a move could destabilize global arms control efforts and trigger a new nuclear arms race.
Eroding Nuclear Agreements
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), signed by Russia in 1996 and ratified in 2000, prohibits nuclear testing. The U.S. signed the treaty but never ratified it. In 2023, Putin officially withdrew Russia’s ratification of the CTBT, aligning Moscow’s stance with the U.S.
Both Russia and the U.S., along with China, are significantly modernizing their nuclear arsenals, signaling the deterioration of Cold War-era arms control agreements. These actions heighten the risk of global instability, as arms control experts fear a renewed return to nuclear testing.
A Dangerous Legacy
From 1945 to 1996, over 2,000 nuclear tests were conducted worldwide, with the U.S. performing 1,032 and the Soviet Union 715. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has refrained from testing, with the last Soviet test taking place in 1990.
Despite the CTBT’s adoption, nations like North Korea have continued to test nuclear weapons, with its most recent test in 2017. Arms control advocates fear that if the U.S. resumes nuclear testing, other countries, including China and Russia, may follow suit, further escalating the risk of nuclear conflict.
A Risky Future
Russia and the U.S. possess the largest nuclear arsenals globally, holding 5,580 and 5,044 warheads, respectively, according to the Federation of American Scientists. Together, these two nations control around 88% of the world’s nuclear weapons, with China holding about 500 warheads.
As the global power balance shifts, the potential for renewed nuclear testing poses serious risks. Experts warn that the resumption of nuclear tests could trigger a new arms race, undermine arms control treaties, and elevate the possibility of a catastrophic global conflict.
Conclusion
The world faces a critical moment. With Trump eyeing a potential return to the presidency and Putin continuing to assert Russia’s military might, international attention is focused on avoiding the return of nuclear brinkmanship. The global community must navigate these volatile developments to prevent the escalation of tensions between these two nuclear superpowers.
