Janice R. Andrews
The outgoing Biden administration has pledged to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 61% to 66% below 2005 levels by 2035, as part of an updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations on Thursday. This commitment is part of the administration’s broader goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
A Steady Path to Net Zero
The U.S. NDC outlines a trajectory aimed at significant progress towards Paris Agreement targets, with the 2035 emissions range aligning with or exceeding the necessary pace to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.
In its submission, Washington reaffirmed its commitment to the global climate accord reached at the COP28 climate summit, emphasizing the need to transition away from fossil fuels. However, there are concerns about the EU’s ability to meet its 2040 climate targets, as well as uncertainties surrounding whether developing countries will meet their pledges following COP29 in Baku, where many were disappointed by the lack of financial support for their energy transitions.
Achievements and Future Challenges
The Biden administration highlights the success of its previous efforts, surpassing the 2020 emissions target of a 17% reduction and being on track to meet its 50-52% reduction target by 2030. Key legislative measures, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act, have directed significant investment into clean energy and transportation technologies.
These initiatives have spurred global competition, particularly with the EU’s introduction of the Net Zero Industry Act to keep pace with the clean technology race, especially in light of China’s growing dominance in this sector.
Uncertainty With Trump’s Return
Despite the current momentum, the future of U.S. climate policy is uncertain under a potential second term for Donald Trump. The former president has promised to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement once again and focus on expanding fossil fuel production.
Under Biden, the U.S. became the world’s leading exporter of oil and gas, with output hitting new record highs. However, global climate efforts focus on domestic emissions rather than the impact of exported fuels.
State-Level Efforts to Push Forward
In response to federal uncertainties, the United States Climate Alliance—a group of governors from 24 states representing 55% of the U.S. population and 60% of its economic output—has adopted its own ambitious goal. The Alliance aims for a 60% emissions reduction by 2035.
“President Biden’s bold leadership is keeping us on a path to a clean energy economy, and the country’s climate-leading governors will carry the torch forward,” said Kathy Hochul, Governor of New York and co-chair of the Alliance.
Michelle Lujan Grisham, Governor of New Mexico and co-chair, emphasized the importance of continuing climate action for both environmental and economic reasons.
Mixed Responses from Climate Advocates
The updated NDC has sparked differing opinions. Ashfaq Khalfan, Climate Justice Director at Oxfam America, criticized the plan for its lack of deadlines to phase out fossil fuel production and the absence of significant funding for poorer nations facing climate challenges.
“With a climate denier likely to return to the White House, the Biden administration’s new national climate plan represents the bare minimum for climate action,” Khalfan said. “It doesn’t reflect the U.S.’s fair share of emissions reductions as the world’s largest historical polluter.”
However, Linda Kalcher, Director of the Strategic Perspectives think tank, was more positive, calling the NDC a “decent farewell gift” from the Biden administration. “The NDC highlights the states that have committed to 100% clean energy goals. It will be interesting to see if they can push the world’s largest oil and gas producer to reduce emissions, especially as federal policies may encourage further fossil fuel extraction.”
Global Climate Pledges in Flux
The U.S. is among a small group of nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, and Switzerland, that have submitted 2035 emissions reduction pledges. The EU, however, is facing delays in setting its 2040 targets. There are also concerns that developing countries may struggle to meet their commitments due to insufficient financial backing from wealthier nations.
At COP29 in Baku, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced an ambitious 81% emissions reduction target for 2035, signaling growing global competition in the climate race.
A Climate Legacy in the Balance
As President Biden prepares to leave office, his administration’s climate commitments represent a significant step forward in addressing global warming. However, the future of U.S. climate action is uncertain, especially with the possibility of a Trump presidency and shifting political priorities.
While Biden’s efforts have laid a foundation for emission reductions, the ultimate success of these initiatives will depend on whether they can withstand future political changes and the growing influence of state-led climate actions.
