Janice R. Andrews
What You Need to Know If a Potential Tropical Storm Hits the Gulf of Mexico
All eyes are focused on the Gulf of Mexico, where a possible tropical storm is building, as hurricane season approaches its zenith. On Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) released an advisory, warning those living near the Gulf Coast to get ready for what may develop into Tropical Storm Francine. Known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, the system had sustained winds of 50 mph with greater gusts around 5 p.m. ET. The storm is moving toward the northwest Gulf Coast, and the NHC anticipates that by midweek it may have strengthened into a hurricane.
Mexican Gulf Coast Subject to Tropical Storm Watch
There is now a tropical storm watch in place for Mexico’s Gulf Coast. The system, which is predicted to produce hazardous winds, deluges of rain, and potentially fatal storm surges to coastal regions, is being closely watched by the NHC. According to forecasts, the storm may land as early as Tuesday night or Wednesday morning around the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.
Although the storm has not yet been given a name, meteorologists warn that its wind speeds are already higher than what constitutes a tropical storm—39 mph. An official name for the system isn’t possible now due to its disorganization, although that could change in the future.
High Rainfall and Possible Flooding Anticipated
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a warning, estimating that the storm would produce 4 to 8 inches of rain to parts of Texas and Louisiana. Localized accumulations of up to 12 inches are possible in certain places. Urban and low-lying regions will probably see flash floods as a result of the rain, therefore it is imperative that locals remain informed and are ready for any evacuations.
The Gulf of Mexico’s warm water combined with less wind shear makes the perfect storm-forming and storm-intensifying environment. By Monday, the storm is predicted to intensify into a tropical storm, and by Tuesday night, it might become a hurricane.
Two More Systems Peer Across the Atlantic
The NHC is monitoring two other systems in the central Atlantic in addition to the storm that is intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico. This week, both systems have a medium chance of forming, and forecasters will keep an eye on their development. As these systems proceed westward across the warm waters of the Atlantic, they have the potential to develop into tropical depressions or perhaps tropical storms.
Within the next 48 hours, there is a 60% probability that one system, which is in the central tropical Atlantic, may organize into a tropical depression. Although the likelihood of a second system forming near the Cabo Verde Islands is reduced, it has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm by midweek.
Spaghetti Models: Following the Storm?
Spaghetti models provide a visual depiction of many prediction models and are often used to predict a storm’s route. For precise forecasting, the NHC uses the models that perform the best. But keep in mind that not all models are made equal, and these forecasts are just that—projections.
As of right now, spaghetti models indicate that the storm may turn north and affect the shores of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of next week. As with any storm that is building, though, everything are subject to change, and the models might change as the storm gets organized.
The Reasons for the Expected Rise in Tropical Activity
A number of variables are causing an increase in tropical activity as September progresses. It is anticipated that wind shear, which normally impedes storm formation, will lessen in the upcoming weeks. In addition, more conducive circumstances for storm formation in the Atlantic are being created by the long-awaited shift to La Niña and the decrease in Saharan dust.
Francine is the upcoming named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season; it may begin to form as early as Monday. The most active time of year for hurricane formation in the Atlantic historically is between August 20 to October 10.
What to Expect from a Potential Tropical Cyclone Six
The extended disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico was traveling northwest at a sluggish speed of 5 mph as of 2 p.m. ET on September 8. The system is predicted to continue northwestward before veering northward into the Gulf Coast. The storm is expected to move toward the northern coast of Mexico by Tuesday, and by Wednesday, it is expected to be headed for Texas and Louisiana.
Rainfall and Winds
Beginning on Tuesday, residents in the Gulf Coast region—especially in southern Texas and northeastern Mexico—should get ready for tropical storm conditions. According to NHC estimates, the system is expected to dump 4 to 8 inches of total rainfall from northeast Mexico to Louisiana, with up to 12 inches expected in isolated locations. There is a significant risk of flash flooding due to this heavy rain, particularly in low-lying locations.
Surge and Surf in Storms
Due to the storm’s onshore winds pushing water toward the coast, some coastal flooding is also predicted along the Mexican coast. Through midweek, the Gulf Coast is expected to have dangerous surf and rip current conditions, making the beach unsafe for both locals and tourists.
Keeping an Eye on Extra Systems
Meanwhile, another system of low pressure is beginning to form in the central tropical Atlantic. As it continues westward, this storm has a 60% probability of developing into a tropical depression during the following 48 hours. Furthermore, by the end of the week, there is a 50% possibility that a second disturbance close to the Cabo Verde Islands would develop into a tropical depression. Though they are currently far from land, these systems should be kept an eye on as they may have an effect on the Caribbean or the US East Coast later this month.
Get Ready for Hurricane Season: Tax-Free Items to Purchase
Residents of Florida have two more days before the state’s disaster preparedness tax break expires on September 6 in light of the impending hurricane. Residents may buy necessary storm supplies without having to pay sales tax thanks to this yearly event. Now that hurricane season is officially underway, it is essential to prepare supplies such as tarps, generators, and nonperishable food.
A list of some of the goods that are eligible for the tax exemption is provided below:
- Portable generators that cost little more than $3,000.
- Tarps & waterproof covering for under $100
- Flashlights and portable radios for $50 or less
- Smoke alarms, carbon monoxide detectors, and fire extinguishers that cost no more than $70
The tax-free list also includes food, kennels that are movable, and prescription drugs for pets. Families who might have to flee with their dogs should pay particular attention to this.
Next Steps?
As the storm moves forward, the NHC will keep an eye on it and offer updates. For the most recent cautions and weather alerts, residents along the Gulf Coast should continue to tune in to their local news sources. A hurricane preparation strategy should be in place because the storm’s route may change and get stronger over the following few days.
The likelihood of hurricanes and tropical storms will rise as hurricane season approaches its zenith. The season’s busiest day has traditionally been September 10, but tropical activity frequently lasts until mid-October. Because of the very warm temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, the season may in certain occasions last into November and December.
Remain Educated and Take Care
Register for SMS notifications from your local news station or weather service to remain up to date on the most recent weather happenings. Additionally, you may download applications that offer up-to-date information on local weather alerts, rainfall, and storm tracks.
We will continue to give news and updates as this storm moves forward. For the most recent updates on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six and other Atlantic tropical systems, be sure to return often.
