Janice R. Andrews
As the peak of the Atlantic storm season approaches, meteorologists are puzzled by the region’s extremely calm weather. Usually, there is a lot of tropical activity at this time of year, but there has been a lot of silence over the last few weeks, with no named storms since Ernesto on August 12. It’s interesting that there haven’t been any storms lately, since this is usually a very busy time of year.
Philip Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University, said that the Atlantic Basin hadn’t had such a long streak of calm weather since 1968, when there were no named storms from August 13 to September 3. It’s been over two weeks since there was a named storm in the Atlantic. This hasn’t happened in over fifty years.
Even though it’s been quiet, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) tells us that September 10 is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and that about two-thirds of all storms happen between August 20 and October 10. The season may have gotten off to a slow start, but it’s still not over.
Saharan dust is a big reason why there aren’t many storms.
One main reason for the recent calm in the Atlantic is the “Saharan Dust” that is moving across it. These big dust storms, which have been going on all through July and most of August, have stopped tropical storms from getting worse. Ed Nowottnick, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Centre, says that the dust from the Sahara caused large amounts of dry air to spread over the warm Atlantic, making it less likely for storms to form.
Tropical waves, which are important for storm formation, are coming out of Africa farther north than normal. Because they are moving farther north, they are interacting with the dry, dusty air, which makes it much less likely that they will become named storms. Even though these dust events have happened about once every two weeks, they have been stronger and covered more area than usual, which has made it even harder for storms to form.
Nowottnick says that the size and time of these dust clouds are very important in figuring out if a storm can happen. The good news is that as September goes on, dust levels should return to normal, which should make it easier for storms to happen.
Conditions in the atmosphere and strange weather patterns
Even though Saharan dust has been a big part of the calm, other things in the air have also played a part. A scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre named Dan Harnos says that the storm track across West Africa has moved northward, causing unusual rainfall in places that don’t usually get it during the monsoon season. Because of this change, disturbances are now moving into the Atlantic over cooler water, which makes it harder for them to become storms.
Also, conditions in the high atmosphere have not been as good for tropical cyclones to form. In the past few weeks, the chances of a storm happening have been greatly reduced by dry air, cooler water, and weak support in the upper atmosphere.
What to Look Forward to the Rest of the Season
Even though things are extremely quiet, experts warn that this lull does not mean that the season will be calm generally. While below-average action is expected to continue for the next couple of weeks, tropical weather experts at Colorado State University say that the season is still on track to be above-average. As the weather gets better over the next few weeks, there could be a big increase in tropical activity.
The National Hurricane Centre is keeping an eye on several tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin right now. But none of these systems are a threat right now, and there’s not much chance that they will change in the next seven days. There is a 30% chance that a tropical disturbance will form in the Caribbean Sea in the next week, but it is not likely to happen right away. Off the coast of Africa, there is a 20% chance that another storm will form. In the middle Atlantic, there is a 10% chance that a third disturbance will form.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Centre is keeping an eye on things, even though there aren’t any direct threats to the U.S. Their long-term Global Tropical Hazards Outlook says there is a slight chance of new tropical development over the Central Atlantic in the middle of September, which could mean more action.
What to Expect from the 2024 Hurricane Season
In the beginning of this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that there would be more named storms than usual, with 17 to 24 expected to become hurricanes. Five named storms have formed in the Atlantic so far, and three of them have grown into hurricanes. In the past few weeks, the season has been pretty quiet, but more action is expected as the weather gets better.
Even though it’s been pretty quiet at the start of hurricane season, strong storms could happen later in the year. Significant storms have formed after September 3 in some of the busiest seasons in history. Like, by this date in 2020, there had already been 15 named storms, and another 15 were still to come before the season ended. In the same way, 13 named storms had formed by early September 2005, and another 14 formed later in the season.
What Part Do Environmental Factors Play?
Several natural factors are very important in figuring out how busy a storm season will be. This year, the eastern Pacific has gone from El Niño to La Niña. This, along with nearly record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Basin and above-average monsoon activity in Africa, has made for a busy season. The expected rise in storm activity over the next few weeks is likely to be caused by these things.
As we get closer to the height of the 2024 storm season, the Atlantic Basin has been surprisingly quiet. However, this peace is likely to only last for a short time. Experts think that tropical storm activity will soon pick up as the amount of dust in the Sahara decreases, the weather changes, and the ocean temperatures stay high. The season is expected to be above average, so it’s important to be careful as we move into the busiest part of the storm season.
