Janice R. Andrews
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent choice to end his independent presidential campaign and back Donald Trump has caused a lot of political waves. With the 2024 election coming up quickly, a lot of people are wondering if Kennedy’s move could make Trump’s chances against the Democratic choice, Vice President Kamala Harris, a lot better. We look at the most recent polls to answer this question. They show how Kennedy’s leaving might affect things.
The Loss of Support for RFK Jr.
A lot of people used to think that Kennedy’s campaign could shake up the 2024 race, but that hope has been slowly fading. An October 2023 poll showed that Kennedy got about 9% of the vote, putting her in a three-way race with Trump and Joe Biden… But Kennedy’s support had dropped to about 5% by July 2024, right before Biden dropped out and Harris became the Democratic candidate. Kennedy’s support has dropped even more recently, with an average of only 4% of the vote in a race between Trump and Harris.
Harris Gains Ground as Kennedy’s Support Falls Away
At the same time that Kennedy’s support is falling, Kamala Harris’s is rising in the polls. At first, Harris was behind Trump by 5 to 6 percentage points. Now, she is ahead by only 2 to 3 points. This change shows that some of Kennedy’s early followers have already switched their support to Harris. These are mostly Democrats who were unsure about voting for Biden.
Who Will RFK Jr.’s Last Supporters Come Back For?
Where Kennedy’s remaining followers, who make up about 4% of the voters, will go now that he is out of the race is the big question. Polls show that a small majority of these people (about 55%) are likely to vote for Trump. The last 45% are expected to vote for Harris. Based on this split, Trump may make some ground, but it may not have a big effect on the race as a whole.
How Kennedy’s Legacy Has Had an Impact
Kennedy’s choice is interesting because his family has strong Democratic roots. Both his father, Robert F. Kennedy, and his uncle, President John F. Kennedy, were well-known Democrats. Even with this history, RFK Jr. has become more popular with Republicans recently, mostly because of his controversial views on vaccines and other conspiracy theories.
Polling data backs up this change. For example, a poll from October 2017 by Yahoo News and YouGov found that some conspiracy ideas Kennedy pushed were much more popular with Trump voters than with Biden supporters. Some people think that the COVID-19 vaccines are worse than the virus itself and that climate change is just an excuse for totalitarian rule. These kinds of ideas have turned off a lot of Democrats and made Kennedy more appealing to some Republicans.
The Effects That Kennedy’s Support Could Have
The support might help Trump a little, but it probably won’t make a big difference in the race. As Nate Silver, a data journalist, points out, if Trump were to win over 55% of Kennedy’s surviving followers, Harris’s national lead would only go down from 2.5% to 2.1%. In addition, the effect might be even smaller in real life. Many of Kennedy’s Republican-leaning followers had many chances to back Trump in the past, but they decided to stay with Kennedy. Now, these people could choose a third-party candidate like Chase Oliver, the Libertarian, or they could decide not to vote at all.
Could a deal between Trump and Kennedy tip the scales?
There is a lot of talk that Kennedy might be trying to make a deal with Trump in exchange for his support. He might want a job in the Cabinet in return for his support. A deal like this might move some Kennedy voters toward Trump, but it could also turn off others. Also, it’s still not clear if Kennedy’s running mate, Silicon Valley lawyer Nicole Shanahan, will continue to give Trump money like she did for Kennedy.
In the end, small differences may be important.
In key swing states with very close races, even a small change in voter preference can make a big difference. Kennedy dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump probably won’t make a big difference in the national election, but they might make a small difference in the 2024 election, particularly in close states where every vote counts.
The fact that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. backed Trump may help him a little, but it’s not likely to have a big impact. As always in politics, something surprising could happen and change everything, but polls show that Kennedy’s resignation does not seem to be a major factor in the 2024 presidential race.
FAQs
- Why did RFK Jr. quit the race?
Kennedy said that he dropped out and endorsed Trump because his support was falling and he needed to bring people together against Kamala Harris.
2. How many people were behind RFK Jr. before he quit?
In the most current polls, Kennedy’s support had dropped to about 4%.
3. Will Kennedy’s support for Trump make his chances a lot better?
Kennedy’s support for Trump might give him a small edge, but it probably won’t make a big difference in the race.
- Could people who supported Kennedy switch their votes to a different third-party candidate?
Yes, some of Kennedy’s unhappy fans might pick a different third-party candidate or not vote at all.
5. What might this mean for split states?
Even a small change in voting choices could have a big effect in key swing states, but Kennedy is not likely to have much of an effect.
What part does Kennedy’s reputation play in this match?
Even though Kennedy’s family is Democratic, he has gotten more support from Republicans lately because of the controversial things he says.
