Janice R. Andrews
The political climate in Canada seems to be drastically changing, and Justin Trudeau—the country’s prime minister since 2015—may be up against the biggest obstacle of his career. According to the most recent polling data, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is leading Trudeau’s Liberal Party by a significant margin, which might pave the way for the Conservatives to win the next federal election with a landslide. What, though, does Trudeau and Canadian politics’ future hold in the wake of this dramatic collapse in Liberal support?
Conservatives Have a 20-Point Advantage
The Conservative Party is leading the country more and more according to the most recent Abacus Data national survey. The poll found that 43% of devoted voters would choose the Conservatives in a hypothetical election held today, while just 23% would support the Liberals. This represents a startling 20-point difference in support between the two parties, a pattern that has continued in other polls.
With 18% of the vote, the New Democratic Party (NDP) is more popular than the Green Party (4%). With 30% of the vote, the Bloc Québécois is still a powerful force in Quebec, where the Liberals and Conservatives are fighting it out for support.
A Sturdy Pattern in Federal Governance
The latest Abacus Data survey reflects a continuation of a long-term trend rather than a singular discovery. For sixteen surveys running, the Conservatives have been ahead of the Liberals. The pattern’s constancy raises the possibility that Canadians are growing disenchanted with Trudeau’s administration, and Poilievre and the Conservatives are definitely gaining ground.
Even more worrisome for Trudeau and his party is the fact that this decline in popularity isn’t passing. For months now, the Liberal Party has been on a downward trend, and it doesn’t appear probable that Trudeau will be able to turn things around and overtake the Conservatives without a dramatic change in public sentiment.
The Regional Divide: Quebec is the only province where the Conservatives do not rule.
The geographical distribution of Conservative support is another important finding from the most recent survey. Save for Quebec, where they are statistically even with the Bloc Québécois, the Conservatives lead in every province and region in Canada. The Liberals may struggle to win enough seats in crucial battleground provinces as a result of their regional dominance.
Outside of Quebec, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by a commanding 25 points. Formerly seen as a powerful force in British Columbia and Ontario, the Liberals are now statistically tied with the NDP outside of Quebec. The Liberals are in a vulnerable position as a result of this decline in popularity across the nation.
Voters Under 30 Leaving Trudeau
The key to Trudeau’s first election victory in 2015 was his ability to win over younger people. But according to the most recent surveys, things have changed, with the Conservatives currently winning among voters between the ages of 18 and 29. Abacus Data indicates that the Conservatives are up by ten points (35% to 25%) in this demographic group, indicating a move away from Trudeau’s popularity among younger Canadians.
The prime minister is much more concerned about the Conservatives’ substantial leads in all demographic categories, including men and women. The Conservative Party’s lead entering the next election is further cemented by this widespread support.
An Expanding Base of Conservative Voters
The foundation of support for the Conservative Party is growing as well as solid. According to a poll by Abacus Data, 55% of Canadians now say they would consider voting Conservative, while only 39% say they would consider voting Liberal. Poilievre and his party are clearly in the lead because more and more Canadians are beginning to view the Conservatives as a serious contender to replace the present government.
With 84% of Canadians indicating a desire for a new administration, there is a clear yearning for change throughout the nation. The electorate’s desire for change is further demonstrated by the fact that 53% of respondents think there is a strong alternative to Trudeau’s Liberals.
Poilievre’s Favorable Views on the Upswing
Pierre Poilievre’s rising popularity is one of the main forces behind the Conservative surge. As to the most recent survey results, 42% of Canadians hold a favorable opinion of Poilievre, with just 35% holding an unfavorable view of the head of the Conservative party. The upward trend stands in stark contrast to Trudeau’s falling approval ratings.
Only 25% of respondents said they had a good impression of the prime minister, while a startling 55% said they had a negative one. Trudeau’s personal approval ratings have collapsed. For the most of the year, Trudeau’s net favorability has been negative, ranging recently between -33 and -34.
The End of the Political Era of Trudeau?
Consistent polling trends show that Canadians are more than ready for a change in direction as they grow more and more disenchanted with Trudeau’s leadership. Without a dramatic change in direction, the Prime Minister’s once-dominant coalition of progressive voters seems to be disintegrating, and the Liberals may be on the verge of a disastrous defeat.
Trudeau’s administration has found it difficult to connect with people as they turn more and more to the Conservatives for answers as concerns over healthcare and cost dominate the political conversation. Pierre Poilievre and his party have effectively positioned themselves as the preferable alternative to a Liberal government that many Canadians believe is out of touch, setting the groundwork for a potential landslide win.
All eyes will be on Trudeau as the election draws near to see whether he can make a return or if this really is the last election he will be serving as prime minister. For the time being, however, the writing is on the wall that Canada may soon witness a major change in the political landscape as the Conservatives prepare to unseat the Liberals.
