Janice R. Andrews
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which updated its prediction on Thursday, is more concerned about the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and predicts it will be “extremely active.” The updated forecast highlights the likelihood of one of the busiest seasons ever recorded, highlighting the pressing necessity for readiness as hurricane season draws to a close.
An Increasing Prognosis
Eight to thirteen of the 17 to 24 named storms that NOAA now anticipates will develop into hurricanes. Compared to the historical average of 14 named storms and seven hurricanes every season, these numbers represent a considerable rise. The four storms that have formed so far this year are included in this prediction; two of them, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Debby, are presently affecting the East Coast.
“With storm Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic storm on record, the hurricane season got started to an early and ferocious start,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad stated in a statement. “The most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms typically occur during the peak of hurricane season, which is quickly approaching,” according to NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal forecast.
An Increased Probability of Above-Average Activity
A 90% probability of an above-average season is indicated by NOAA’s projection, one of the agency’s most concerning forecasts to date. The importance of these chances was emphasized by lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans, who pointed out that there is essentially no probability of a below-normal season and that there is only a 10% chance for a near-normal season.
The pattern of above-normal hurricane activity, which continues to worry meteorologists and disaster management experts alike, will continue in 2024 if these forecasts come to pass.
The Impact of Sea Surface Temperatures and La Niña
The unusually high sea surface temperatures and the predicted arrival of La Niña, a natural climatic trend marked by cooler-than-average sea water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, are major contributors to this catastrophic projection. La Niña usually intensifies Atlantic storm activity, therefore its possible arrival is crucial to the season’s severity.
According to Rosencrans, “We’re still seeing the climatological signs of an active season.” “Now is the time to prepare, as sea-surface temperatures are still abnormally high and La Niña is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season.”
There is a 66% probability, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, that La Niña will develop between September and November, which would probably have an impact on the second part of the hurricane season.
Hurricane Debbie: An Ongoing Danger
Tropical Storm Debby is still a threat to the East Coast, which puts the prediction into stark relief at the time of NOAA’s updated forecast. Communities are encouraged to be aware, assess their risk, and have preparation strategies in place as hurricane season quickly approaches its height.
Colorado State University Modifies Prediction
The worry was increased when Colorado State University (CSU), which is well-known for being a trailblazer in hurricane-season forecasting, revised its estimates. CSU predicts a very active season, albeit a little reduction from previous projections: 23 named storms, down from 25, and 12 hurricanes. Notably, CSU raised its forecast from five to six significant storms (Category 3 or above).
In an online post, CSU stated, “We have maintained our forecast for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”
Gearing Up for the Pinnacle
The predictions from CSU and NOAA both serve as a sobering reminder of the possibility of catastrophic storms in the upcoming months as hurricane season approaches. More than ever, preparation is required because the full impact of La Niña has not yet been felt.
As the hurricane season moves closer to its height, residents in hurricane-prone regions are recommended to stay informed, check their emergency plans, and take preventative measures to protect their homes and communities.
