Janice R. Andrews
Building a wall to secure the border and prevent criminals from entering the country was one of Donald Trump’s campaign promises in the 2016 presidential election. His immigration policy has shifted its focus this election season to a mass deportation scheme unheard of in the nation. Immigration was the main topic of discussion at the meeting on Tuesday. His party’s programme, approved at the Republican convention in Milwaukee, calls for the “largest deportation effort in American history.” Millions of people’s deportations: what would it take? Is it even feasible?
How Many Illegal Immigrants Are There in the Nation?
The most recent government projections put the number of immigrants living in the US illegally in 2022 at 11 million. Eight out of ten have lived in the nation for more than ten years. In a recent debate, Trump asserted that there were 18 million, yet there is no evidence to support this assertion. During the Biden administration, record numbers of migrants from nations like Venezuela have crossed the border in search of safety from political and economic unrest.
Whom Would Deportation Aim for?
While Trump and the Republican platform have made bold claims, they have provided very little information about how they plan to carry them out. According to the former president, any immigrant without proper documentation might be deported. Although the party platform promises to prioritise “the most dangerous criminals,” it also makes a commitment to deporting illegal immigrants and expelling those who have broken the law.
The Difficulty of Logistics
Experts concur that it would be nearly impossible to carry out the mass deportations Trump plans to carry out over a four-year presidential term due to logistical, legal, bureaucratic, and financial obstacles. According to Laura Collins, an immigration specialist at the George W. Bush Institute in Dallas, “deporting people who have been here for years is an extremely complicated and expensive thing to decide.” According to her predictions, it would take 20 years, cost billions of dollars, and cause the economy to contract. Obama administration homeland security director John Sandweg agrees, pointing out that four years was not enough time to construct a fully working system, despite significant statutory improvements and tens of billions in appropriations.
Legal and Administrative Obstacles
Long-term residents of the nation are entitled to due process as well as legal protection. Recently arrived foreign nationals are detained at the border and given court dates for deportation hearings before being released. The processing of these cases may take several years, during which time immigrants are permitted to stay in the country. The immigration court would need to increase in size in order to reach Trump’s goals, necessitating the purchase of new judges, support personnel, and court buildings.
Backlogs have been made worse by decades of underfunding and a high volume of asylum petitions. “A president cannot simply override a deportation order; an individual must receive one,” stated Janet Napolitano, the Obama administration’s secretary of homeland security. Congress would have to actively participate and amend the law, which would be a difficult undertaking in light of its almost two-decade-long inability to reform the immigration system.
Employees and Infrastructure
Roughly 936,000 people were deported by the Trump government. Approximately 340,000 individuals have been deported by the Biden administration by February 2023. Tens of thousands more immigration officers would be needed to identify and apprehend millions of migrants in the nation’s interior. To carry out his plan, Trump has proposed using the National Guard and other military forces. Additionally, local law enforcement might be assigned the task of locating and turning over to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) anyone lacking proper documentation. Nevertheless, a number of towns, including Philadelphia, Denver, Los Angeles, and Chicago, have refused to work with ICE due to worries about racial profiling and the deportation of immigrants for very minor infractions.
At the moment, the primary goal of ICE agents is to track down and deport convicted felons, including those who have abused children and those who pose a threat to public or national security. One million immigrants who have final deportation orders on their records may be the target. It’s still difficult to enlarge prisons to hold that many people without going over budget, though. In the current fiscal year, Congress paid for the daily imprisonment of 41,500 immigrants, at a cost of $3.4 billion. If there were mass deportations, this number would have to rise tremendously.
Transportation and Diplomatic Difficulties
Many immigrants are from nations that do not have diplomatic relations with the United States or that will not repatriate their citizens. As per the Supreme Court’s ruling, these persons cannot be flown out of the country immediately and cannot be imprisoned forever pending deportation. In fiscal 2023, ICE deported 142,580 individuals while spending $420 million on transportation and deportation.
Possibility of Quick Removals
By ending initiatives started by the Biden administration, a second Trump administration might expedite deportations. For instance, since 2022, around 500,000 citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela have been granted entry to the United States for a two-year stay and employment, as long as they have a sponsor who can provide financial support. Additionally, Biden has let about 700,000 migrants to obtain work permits and cross the border at an authorised port of entry.
Trump may cancel these initiatives, but a large number of immigrants may file asylum petitions, further backlog the legal system. Expanding expedited removal at the border, which permits quick deportation without a hearing absent a genuine threat of violence, is one possibility. But there would probably be legal challenges to this.
The Effect on Families
Regarding the deportees, Trump has not said if he would use discretion or make any exceptions. More than a million Americans are wed to non-citizens, and numerous immigrants father children who are citizens of the United States. “At the end of the day, you have to consider what does that do to the atmosphere in the country when you are talking about those kinds of numbers and law enforcement presence,” Napolitano added.
Final Thoughts
Although some voter bases find the idea of mass deportations appealing politically, there are many obstacles in the way of its actual execution. Strong obstacles are created by due process, financial constraints, logistical needs, and legal protections. The political environment is also very important because it is unlikely that such a large operation will be approved. Although there is still dispute, it seems unlikely that millions of immigrants could be deported in a single presidential term.
