Janice R. Andrews
Korea, South On January 5, North Korea fired hundreds of artillery projectiles close to the South Korean border islands, marking a dramatic increase in hostilities. The government last week declared South Korea to be a “hostile state” and disclosed that it had tested an underwater nuclear drone meant to fend off U.S. Navy fleets.
There is increasing anxiety over whether North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is planning a significant military offensive, given the world’s focus on the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
In a recent piece, seasoned experts Siegfried Hecker and Robert Carlin cautioned that Kim might have chosen to go to war on a calculated note, deviating from the regime’s custom of using military provocations to garner attention or maintain internal control.
It’s thought that a number of things, such as domestic economic difficulties and dissatisfaction with unsuccessful diplomatic efforts, are driving North Korea’s changing stance. A fresh twist to the problem is the result of Kim’s recent alignment with Russia, which includes the provision of missiles and artillery rounds for the conflict in Ukraine.
Different people have different ideas about what Kim’s ultimate objectives are. Some think he wants to negotiate armaments reduction with the United States, while others think he wants Washington to recognise North Korea as a nuclear power.
Experts speculate that in order to raise tensions without starting a full-scale conflict, North Korea may carry out milder provocations and weapon tests. The timing of such acts could affect domestic politics and views worldwide, especially during election seasons in the US and South Korea.
More worries have been raised by the recent news of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s possible visit to North Korea. The increasing collaboration between North Korea and Russia, especially in military cooperation, has caught the attention of friends in the Korean peninsula and other Western nations.
Concerns about North Korea possibly giving Russia weapons for its conflict in Ukraine—perhaps in exchange for both military and economic support—are raised by the White House. With a massive confrontation imminent, the international community is intently monitoring developments in the Korean Peninsula as tensions escalate.
