Janice R. Andrews
Election night 2024 has concluded, and Donald Trump has regained the White House after securing a victory in Wisconsin early Wednesday morning. Here are five important takeaways from how America voted:
1. Trump Is More Powerful Than Four Years Ago
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency is marked by significant gains in 2024 compared to 2020. In the previous election, Trump narrowly lost, with a few thousand votes in critical swing states determining Joe Biden’s victory. This time, even a small shift in support for Trump had the potential to sway the results—and the shift was substantial.
Trump performed strongly across several states this year. In Florida, he beat Kamala Harris by 13 percentage points, a major improvement over his 2020 margin. Although he still lost in Virginia, he managed to reduce the gap to 5 points from 10. In traditionally blue states like New York and New Jersey, Trump achieved his best performance in decades, signaling broader demographic and regional shifts. While these changes didn’t drastically alter the electoral map in solid blue states, they highlight important trends that helped him succeed in critical battlegrounds.
2. Trump Dominated Rural America
Trump’s strong rural support played a crucial role in his success in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, which the Associated Press declared for Trump late Tuesday night. In these Southern states, Trump improved on his 2020 performance in many small, rural counties, securing additional votes in key areas. While Harris did slightly better than Biden in some suburban regions around Atlanta and Charlotte, it wasn’t enough to counteract Trump’s overwhelming support in rural areas.
Early exit polls show Trump won 63% of the rural vote nationally, up from 57% in 2020. Harris, on the other hand, didn’t improve upon Biden’s 60% support in urban areas, and she lost suburban voters, a group that had supported Biden in 2020. This rural-urban divide remains a critical factor in U.S. politics.
3. Trump Made Significant Gains with Latino Voters
One of the more unexpected developments this election was Trump’s performance with Latino voters. Early exit polls suggest he may have secured the largest share of the Latino vote for a Republican since George W. Bush. In 2020, Trump won 32% of the Latino vote, but in 2024, he appears to have garnered 45%. In Michigan, he even reached 60% of the Latino vote, representing a shift of over 35 percentage points in his favor.
Latino men were primarily responsible for this shift, voting for Trump at 54%, compared to Biden’s 59% advantage in 2020. If these early numbers hold, it could signify a major shift in U.S. politics, as Latino voters—especially men—seem to be increasingly supportive of Trump’s messaging. While exit polls are not always entirely reliable, the trend suggests a significant change in political alignment.
4. Democrats Faced Defeats in Down-Ballot Races
The battle for Senate control was always going to be tough for Democrats in 2024. With a slim majority of 51-49, Democrats had little room for error, especially since they were defending several vulnerable seats while Republicans were largely safe. The results highlighted these challenges.
Despite some Senate Democrats, like Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Colin Allred in Texas, outperforming Harris in their states, they still lost. In West Virginia, Democrats had already conceded the seat previously held by Sen. Joe Manchin. In Nebraska, independent challenger Dan Osborn failed to unseat Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. With Republicans Jim Justice and Bernie Moreno winning in West Virginia and Ohio, respectively, the Senate flipped in favor of the GOP.
5. Polling Was Accurate This Time Around
In both 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated Trump’s support in crucial swing states, raising doubts about polling accuracy. However, this year, polls appear to have been more reliable, accurately predicting tight races across several key states.
Polling averages had forecast that most swing states would be decided by a margin of one to three points, and as the final votes are counted, this prediction proved correct. Trump may win most—if not all—of these battleground states, leading to a possible comfortable Electoral College victory. However, these wins remain within the expected margin of error, indicating that the polling methodology was accurate and aligned with the actual results.
Conclusion
As Election Day 2024 concludes, Trump’s victory brings with it significant takeaways that will influence the political landscape moving forward. His increased support in rural areas, surprising gains among Latino voters, and strong performance in down-ballot races suggest a realignment in U.S. politics. While Harris energized certain demographics, the Democratic Party faced difficulties in key areas, especially among rural and Latino voters. Additionally, the accuracy of polling this year reassures analysts about the reliability of pre-election data.
This election underscores the importance of understanding shifting voter bases, particularly among rural and Latino demographics. For Democrats, this will likely prompt a strategic reevaluation of how they approach these key groups. For Republicans, the gains made with Latino men and rural voters provide a foundation for future campaigns.
Trump’s return to the White House is a testament to the evolving political dynamics in America, with shifting demographics and regional trends likely to continue shaping the political landscape for years to come.
